Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Odds Preview Picks - 10/09/2021

by James Q

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Odds Preview Picks - 10/09/2021


Game Time: 5:07 pm ET, Friday, October 9th, 2021 
Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Where to Watch:TBS-INT, TBS


Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Money-line: Brewers -130, Braves +110; O/U: 7.5
BetMGM: Moneyline:  Brewers -130, Braves +110; O/U 7.5 

 

Season Record

Brewers: 95-67 (NL Central Champs)
Braves: 88-73 (NL East Champs)

This will be Game 2 of the NLDS between Atlanta and Milwaukee.  Major League Baseball will be promoting the heck out of the NL West playoff series between the San Francisco Giants and the LA Dodgers, but don’t sleep on the rest of the National League postseason field. In the regular season the Braves and the Brewers tied 3-3 in six games played.  Interestingly, each team won 2 road games against the other.  Whoever ultimately wins will spend this entire series against a tough out.


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Braves vs Brewers Preview and Analysis


RECENT FORM
The Braves finished the baseball season going 8-2 over their last ten games. They handled the San Diego Padres, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the New York Mets.  They finished strong which should give them a huge boost in confidence going into this series with the Brewers.  They got to skip the nonsensical, win or go home, wild card game.  September into October they seemed to cruise and will now need to dig deep and play harder than they have been.  They had 4 Overs and 6 Unders during that stretch.

The Brewers finished the season 4-6.  They were comfortably in first place and seemed perfectly content to let the St. Louis Cardinals beat up on them while they saved arms for the mound in the playoffs. They took losses from the Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers helping to propel them to a meeting in the Wild Card.  The only team they handled over the stretch was the New York Mets… it seems everyone beats the Mets.  They had 6 Overs and 4 Unders during that stretch.


Offensive Analysis

The Braves finished the season tied for 11th in batting average, 3rd in home runs, and 21st in stolen bases.  They have solid hitters like Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and of course Austin Riley.  Look for Dansby Swanson to play big against the Brewers.  In their meetings during the season Dansby posted 2 homers, 10 RBIs, 3 BB in 22 at bats.  

 The Brewers finished the season 18th in home runs, 11th in stolen bases, and a sad 27th in batting average.  It’s team play and pitching that has gotten the Brewers to their spot in the postseason.

Defensive Analysis

The Braves ranked 8th in team ERA this season, 12th in overall pitching wins.  The Braves have a good mixture of pitchers with Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried.  If it goes down to a battle of bullpens the Brewers might be a little better.

The Brewers finished the season ranked 3rd in Team ERA, and 4th overall in pitching wins.  The rotation of Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff is one of the toughest in the league and now in the postseason.  The rotation took a hit this season with the loss of P Devin Williams and the bull-pen is susceptible to giving up late inning runs…. But they are here, they finished first and the playoffs are a different animal altogether.

 

Braves vs Brewers Prediction 

Our prediction for Saturday, October 9th is….  Braves 4 - Brewers 2

 

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MLB Betting Trends

The Braves are 22-12 against the NL Central. +6.7 Units on the moneyline.
The Braves 46-35 in road games, + 89.6 Units on the moneyline.
The Brewers are 17-14 against the Al East, +0.9 units on the moneyline.
The Brewers are 76-49 as a favorite, +0.3 Units on the moneyline.

Key Injuries

Braves:  C Stephen Vogt (hip) 10 Day IL  *  P Josh Tomlin  (neck) 10 Day.
Brewers:  No one new.  They have a clean bill going in.

Players To Watch

Atlanta:  Max Fried. The 27 year old left-handed pitcher will get Atlanta’s start on the mound.  His career stats are 40-18, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.  His postseason stats are 0-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP.  He needs a big postseason game to get rolling.  This is a high quality, young pitcher that only needs some seasoning to really catch fire as an established ace.

Milwaukee:  Milwaukee will start righty Brandon Woodruff. Brandon is a 28 year old quality MLB starter his .96 WHIP in 2021is bested by his career postseason WHIP of .81.  His next goal will have to be to improve on the 1-2 postseason record he has going…. Of course he can’t supply his own run support.

Starting Lineups 

Braves:
J. Soler, RF
F. Freeman, 1B
O. Albies, 2B
A. Riley, 1B
A. Duvall, RF
E. Rosario, LF
T. d'Arnaud, C
D. Swanson, SS
C. Morton, P

Brewers:
K. Wong, 2B
W. Adames, SS
E. Escobar, 3B
C. Yelich, LF
T. Taylor, RF
L. Cain, CF
R. Tellez, 1B
M. Pina, C

Statistical Leaders

Braves:
Batting AVG: Austin Riley .303
Home Runs: Austin Riley  33
Hits: Freddie Freeman  180
Wins: Charlie Morton  14
ERA: Max Fried 3.04

Brewers:
Wins:  Brent Suter 12
ERA:  Corbin Burnes 2.43
Saves:  Josh Hader  34
Home Runs:  Avasail Garcia  29
Hits:  Luis Urias  122

 

Weather Forecast 

Partly Cloudy. The week of near constant rain should have come to end by late Friday night... the result will be a field crew working hard to restore the damp playing surface between each game in Milwaukee.  The high temp on Saturday should be 72*, Humidity of 78%.

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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