Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Toledo Rockets: Bahamas Bowl Prediction & Game Preview - 12/17/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Saturday, Dec 11, 2021
Bahamas Bowl

Game time: Noon ET; Dec. 17, 2021
Venue: Thomas A. Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Where to watch: ESPN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Toledo -10
BetMGM: Toledo -10
Caesars: Toledo -10

Season record
Middle Tennessee: 6-6
Toledo: 7-5

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Middle Tennessee - Toledo preview and analysis


Bowl season is upon us, and we're starting with a fun one in the Bahamas with the Toledo Rockets opening as 10-point favorites against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

The Rockets won their final three games of the season in order to clinch bowl eligibility, doing so winning by 32, 12 and 35 points respectively to reach the postseason for the first time since 2018. That's when Toledo also played in the Bahamas Bowl but lost to Florida International.

Toledo's late-season run was due to a mid-season quarterback change.  Carter Bradley went 3-2 in the first five starts but he threw for less than 200 yards in three of those starts, especially his wins. The Rockets went to Dequan Finn for the remainder of the season and he lit a spark as a dual-threat option; he threw for 16 touchdowns and only one interception in the final seven games. He also ran for eight touchdowns on the ground, including a 70-yarder at some point.

The tandem of Finn and running back Bryant Koback lead the Rockets offensively. Koback ran for 1,274 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry.

It's a Toledo offense that averaged 34.2 points per game, and that strong defensive play at the end of the year was no blip. Toledo gave up only 21 points per game led by Jamal Hines and his 10 sacks. The Rockets won games when they're defense was holding teams down; the only time the defense allowed more than 20 points in a win this season was Nov. 16 against Ohio, the second-to-last game of the season.

But Middle Tennessee is going to present a tough challenge for the Toledo offense. The Blue Raiders lead the nation with 31 turnovers since the end of last season and have six defensive touchdowns. That defense is how Middle Tennessee overcame a 2-4 start and reached a bowl game for the first time since 2018 when they lost the New Orleans Bowl.

MTSU is in a weird spot. The defense spent a large portion this season of carrying this team while the offense couldn't find a consistent identity. Four different quarterbacks played before Chase Cunningham took the reins.

Five different running backs touched the ball; the Raiders' leading receiver caught only 510 yards and six touchdowns. No one else really touched Jimmy Marshall in terms of production.

But MTSU is led by Reed Blankenship and his 106 tackles. Jordan Ferguson was the leader in sacks with seven, while freshman Quincy Riley had a team-high five interceptions, the second-most in the nation. You don't see many impact players like this defensively in all three phases, but it shows how opportunistic this unit can be. The problem is trying to slow down that Toledo offense, and the past has shown that Middle Tennessee won't have enough to slow them down.

Prediction


Toledo closed the season with scoring at least 35 points in their final four games, even by scoring 49 in a loss to Eastern Michigan. Middle Tennessee needs to find a way to put points on the board, and if that defense is on the field for long periods of time, it isn't happening. Toledo by 17

Betting trends


Toledo is 10-11 ATS in its last 21 as a favorite.

Toledo is 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.

Middle Tennessee is 12-11 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog.

Middle Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight off a win over a conference rival.

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Middle Tennessee - Toledo prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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