by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022
NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16, South Region
Time: 7:29 p.m. ET
Time: 7:29 p.m. ET
Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: TBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Villanova -5
BetMGM: Villanova -4.5
Caesars: Villanova -5
Season record
No. 11 Michigan: 19-14
No. 2 Villanova: 28-7
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Michigan - Villanova preview and analysis
Can we get some GGs in the chat for the Michigan Wolverines? Or at least a golf clap? Because who in the world had these guys getting this far and making things interesting as a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament? I think it’s fair to have doubted these guys given how the regular season ended, and I also feel it was warranted that they shouldn’t have been given such a reasonable seed in the NCAA Tournament.
So of course they’re going to knock out the Villanova Wildcats in the Sweet 16, aren’t they? Trust me, at this point, thinking of any conceivable way to say Michigan will lose on Thursday in San Antonio is the only idea running through my brain. I have absolutely no clue how or why, but Juwan Howard’s group has gotten too far and is willing to shock the world.
Michigan’s 76-68 victory over the Tennessee Volunteers might have been one of the more shocking performances of the tournament. I know we’re talking about this considering there’s a 15 seed in the tournament that could possibly win, but again, why in the world are we discussing Michigan right now? There’s no way they should’ve won, right?
The return of DeVante Jones. That’s it. That’s the reason.
Sure, their start guard only played 11 minutes and scored a grand total of two points, but he had three rebounds and three assists in Michigan’s stunning victory. The Wolverines’ leader returned from concussion protocol and had a very efficient few minutes. I’d say a larger role will give Michigan a great deal of confidence going into this game.
That helped, but it was also Eli Brooks taking over in the final minutes with 23 points, seven in the final 3:30, for the win.
"I'm just trying to live in the moment right now and cherish the time we have with the people in my life right now at Michigan and enjoy the process of going through this tournament again and having that chance of getting our last goal," said Brooks, a fifth-year senior.
This is Michigan’s fifth straight trip to the Sweet 16, which shouldn’t make this all that much of a surprise, but it’s just a shock with this team. If they’re getting healthy at the right time, they’re as good as any of the 16 left in the field.
Which is why I look at Villanova and I’m just trying to figure out what they are right now. I’ve been afraid to put so much stock into the Wildcats for most of the season, and that remains to be seen in the NCAA Tournament, as well. Finishing off Delaware in the first round was a good start, but then to knock off Ohio State in the second round (which has been a disappointment for the better part of the season) is also not that much of a needle mover.
But as long as Villanova has Collin Gillespie, they’re going to get very far in this dojo. Gillespie went only 5 of 14 from the floor, but finished with 20 points and made all eight of his free throws in very clutch fashion to propel a late surge.
"I think they have the confidence if ‘Collin is giving it to me, that's telling me, Go ahead and shoot it,' " Villanova coach Jay Wright said.
"They had a stretch where they were hitting shot after shot, and we just stuck together and came together on the defensive end and told each other, ‘Let's get this next stop, let's get this next stop' and tried to make the next play,” Gillespie said.
Prediction
The over has cashed in Michigan’s last five as an underdog, and if this turns into an offensive shootout, I think it favors Michigan. They have covered nine of their last 11 on neutral sites as an underdog, and I think that trend continues. Whether or not they win? That’s another situation entirely. I’m going to take the favorite by a slight margin, but don’t be shocked if Michigan keeps this closer than any of us anticipated. Villanova by 3
Betting trends
Michigan is 79-57 ATS in March games since 1997.
Michigan is 3-11 ATS this season after covering the spread the previous game.
Villanova is 175-124 ATS in non-conference games since 1997.
Projected starting lineup
Michigan:
PG: Eli Brooks
SG: DeVante Jones
SF: Caleb Houstan
PF: Moussa Diabate
C: Hunter Dickinson
Villanova:
PG: Collin Gillespie
SG: Justin Moore
SF: Brandon Slater
PF: Jermaine Samuels
C: Eric Dixon
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
