Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/31/2025

Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Venue:  Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Michigan +7.5, Texas -7.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Michigan +7.5, Texas -7.5; Over/Under:  48 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Michigan +7.5, Texas -7.5; Over/Under:  48.5 points

Michigan Wolverines:  9-3 (7-2) (4th place, Big Ten)

Texas Longhorns:  9-3 (6-2) (5th place, SEC)

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Michigan Wolverines:  lost their last game at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes 27-9.

Texas Longhorns:  won their last game at home against the Texas A&M Aggies 27-17.

Michigan is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 7-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Ohio State 27-9. Bryce Underwood was the starting QB and he completed 8/18 passes for 63 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Marshall led the team in rushing yards with 61. Donaven McCulley led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Brandyn Hillman led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jyaire Hill came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 9-3 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Texas A&M 27-17. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 14/29 passes for 179 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Quintrevion Wisner led the team in rushing yards with 155. Jack Endries led the receivers with 93 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jelani McDonald led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Colin Simmons led the defense in sacks with 1. Kobe Black and Michael Taaffe each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the SEC. They have also played in a neutral site game this season and they are 1-0. Meanwhile, Michigan has looked really good in their games this season with their 9-3 record overall and their 7-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big Ten. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan was a solid team in the Big Ten this year and they were beating up on a lot of bad teams all season, but they didn't have the talent to compete with some of the top teams in the conference. They are off a 27-9 loss to Ohio State in their last one and now they have a lot of off the field distractions surrounding Sherrone Moore who has been fired. They aren't in a great situation entering this game, and Texas is going to be looking to make a statement here. Texas had some really good wins this season and even ended the regular season with a 27-17 win over Texas A&M, but they also had some bad losses and those are what kept them out of the CFP. They still feel like they were good enough to be in the playoffs though so they are going to end the year making a statement in this game. Texas still had one of the best defenses in the SEC this year too, and their offense was looking a lot better toward the end of the season. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Wednesday, December 31, 2025 (3:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 28 Michigan 7.

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Michigan Wolverines: 10-4 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 8-3 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 6-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 rushing yards/carry or less. 11-4 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).

Texas Longhorns: 0-3 ATS in a bowl game. 2-9 ATS against Big 10 conference opponents. 43-60 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 24-15 UNDER in all lined games. 8-4 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 6-3 UNDER off a home win against a conference rival.

Michigan Wolverines:  E. Link (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Nichols (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Hansen (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Haynes (RB) Questionable - Foot. S. Morgan (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Hausmann (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Moore (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Charleston (WR) Out - Undisclosed. D. Baxter (DL) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hood (LB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Johnson (RB) Out - Undisclosed. I. Stewart (WR) Out - Undisclosed. A. Babalola (OG) Out - Knee.

Texas Longhorns:  A. Hill Jr. (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Cojoe (OG) Out - Knee.

"Being selected to participate in the 80th annual Citrus Bowl against Texas is a tremendous honor for our program. We're grateful to CEO Steve Hogan and the entire Florida Citrus Sports staff for the invitation, and we look forward to our time in Orlando during the holiday season. The Citrus Bowl has always been a valued partner of the Big Ten, consistently delivering one of the premier bowl experiences in college football. Our student-athletes and coaches are looking forward to the opportunity to participate against a tremendous opponent and represent Michigan on this prestigious stage." - Athletic Director Warde Manuel on Michigan playing in the Citrus Bowl.

"We appreciate all that Pete Kwiatkowski has done for the program in his five years coordinating our defense and are grateful for Duane Akina's efforts in returning to the program this past year. They are both tremendous coaches and people that worked extremely hard for Texas Football and the players they coached. We have had a great deal of success, are thankful for the roles they played in that, and wish them the best.” - Steve Sarkisian on changes to his coaching staff.

WR McCulley, Donaven

WR Marsh, Andrew

WR Morgan, Semaj

TE Klein, Marlin

QB Underwood, Bryce

RB Marshall, Jordan

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Mosley V, Emmett

WR Moore Jr., DeAndre

TE Endries, Jack

QB Manning, Arch

RB Wisner, Quintrevion

Passing: Bryce Underwood (2,229)

Rushing: Jordan Marshall (932)

Receiving: Andrew Marsh (641)

Touchdowns: Justice Haynes (10)

Passing: Arch Manning (2,942)

Rushing: Quintrevion Wisner (597)

Receiving: Ryan Wingo (770)

Touchdowns: Arch Manning (9)

Coaches:

Michigan Wolverines: Biff Poggi (Interim)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (5th season)