by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 19, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 21, 2023
Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Michigan -24.5, MSU +24.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Michigan -24, MSU +24; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Michigan -24.5, MSU +24.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Michigan Wolverines: 7-0 (4-0) (1st place, Big Ten East)
Michigan State Spartans: 2-4 (0-3) (6th place, Big Ten East)
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Recent Form
Michigan Wolverines: won their last game at home against the Indiana Hoosiers 52-7.
Michigan State Spartans: lost their last game on the road against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 27-24.
Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans Preview and Analysis
Michigan is entering this game with a 7-0 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Indiana 52-7. J.J. McCarthy was the starting QB and he completed 14/17 passes for 222 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Benjamin Hall led the team in rushing yards with 58. Colston Loveland led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Junior Colson led the defense in that game with 2 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Jaylen Harrell led the defense in sacks with 2. Rod Moore came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Michigan State is entering this game with a 2-4 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Rutgers 27-24. Katin Houser was the starting QB and he completed 18/29 passes for 133 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Nathan Carter led the team in rushing yards with 52. Montorie Foster led the receivers with 48 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Aaron Brule led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Khalil Majeed, Cal Haladay, and Brandon Wright each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jaden Mangham and Chance Rucker each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction
The current betting odds have Michigan listed as a 24.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked really good in their games lately with their 7-0 record overall and their 4-0 conference record. Their offense wasn't putting up a ton of points during their non-conference games but they have improved a lot since starting conference play as they have been blowing out every team they play and barely giving up any points either. Michigan State has been terrible this season with their 2-4 record overall and they are 0-3 in conference games too, also dealing with a ton of distractions off the field. Michigan State is also coming off a bad loss to Rutgers in their last game as they were leading for a good majority until Rutgers pulled off a late comeback to win. Michigan State doesn't have the talent to compete with Michigan this year and Michigan is on a roll right now in the Big Ten. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game.
Michigan Michigan State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 21, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Michigan 45 MSU 17.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Michigan Wolverines Michigan State Spartans prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
NCAAF Betting Trends
Michigan Wolverines: 22-12 ATS in all games. 9-2 ATS in road games. 8-1 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 8-3 OVER in road games. 10-5 OVER off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival.
Michigan State Spartans: 7-16 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival. 7-12 ATS off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. 11-5 OVER off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. 12-7 OVER after playing a conference game.
Key Injuries
Michigan Wolverines: C. Stokes (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed A. Orji (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. K. Mullings (LB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. M. Klein (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. L. Forbes (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Rolder (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
Michigan State Spartans: C. Dellinger (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. K. Talley (DL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Martinez (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Mangham (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Simmons (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Nickel (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Barbarin (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. S. Ramil (OL) out for season - Knee. G. Broscious (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Windmon (LB) out for season - Pectoral. Q. Carter (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Mangham (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. S. Melvin (DB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Gaoteote (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. VanSumeren (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. Smith (DB) out for season - Undisclosed. T. Hopper (TE) Out indefinitely - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“When we get punched in the mouth, we’re going to respond.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s win against Indiana in their last game.
“We had the momentum. But like I said, when the momentum switch happened, we couldn’t stop them rolling down the hill, avalanche after avalanche.” - Harlon Barnett after his team’s loss against Rutgers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Michigan Wolverines
WR Johnson, Cornelius
WR Wilson, Roman
TE Barner, A.J.
TE Loveland, Colston
QB McCarthy, J.J.
RB Corum, Blake
Michigan State Spartans
WR Foster Jr., Montorie
WR Glover, Jaron
WR Mosley, Tre
TE Carr, Maliq
QB Kim, Noah
RB Carter, Nathan
Statistical Leaders
Michigan Wolverines
Passing: J. McCarthy (1512)
Rushing: B. Corum (546)
Receiving: R. Wilson (396)
Touchdowns: B. Corum (12)
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: N. Kim (1090)
Rushing: N. Carter (529)
Receiving: M. Foster Jr. (274)
Touchdowns: N. Carter (4)
Coaches:
Michigan Wolverines: Jim Harbaugh (9th season)
Michigan State Spartans: Harlon Barnett (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
