Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/05/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 5, 2026

Venue:  Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

Where to Watch:  Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Michigan -8.5, Iowa +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Michigan -8.5, Iowa +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Michigan -8.5, Iowa +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Michigan Wolverines:  27-2 (17-1) (1st place, Big Ten)

Iowa Hawkeyes:  20-9 (10-8) (8th place, Big Ten)

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Michigan Wolverines:  4-1  last 5

Iowa Hawkeyes:  2-3  last 5

Michigan is entering this game with a 27-2 record overall, a 17-1 record in conference games, and they are 10-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Illinois Fighting Illini in their last game. Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara each led the team in points in that game with 19 while Yaxel Lendeborg was next on the team with 16. Elliot Cadeau led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Morez Johnson Jr. led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 52.5% from the field, 36.4% from 3-point range, and 82.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 89 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.7 PPG against them. Michigan has an ATS record of 15-14 this season and their O/U record is 11-18.

Iowa is entering this game with a 20-9 record overall, a 10-8 conference record, and they are 14-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Penn State Nittany Lions in their last game. Cooper Koch led the team in points in that game with 18 while Bennett Stirtz was next on the team with 16. Bennett Stirtz led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Cam Manyawu and Tavion Banks each led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 45.6% from the field, 32.1% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 75.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65 PPG against them. Iowa has an ATS record of 17-12 this season and their O/U record is 16-13.

The current betting odds have Michigan listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked great in their games this season with their 27-2 record overall and their 17-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have been a great road team too with their 10-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Iowa has looked good in their games this season with their 20-9 record overall and their 10-8 conference record which has them in the top half of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 14-2 home record this season. Iowa hasn't lost many home games this season and they have been a really tough team to beat at home, but lately they haven't been at their best. They are 2-3 in their last 5 games as they haven't looked good lately and they are off a bad loss to Penn State in their last one, Penn State being one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Iowa has been a solid team in the conference this year, but they have been a lot better at beating up on the bad opponents while struggling against the top teams. Now they have to face the single best team in the Big Ten this year and not only is Michigan a top team in the conference, they have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the conference too. They did take a loss to Duke over a week ago, but Duke is also one of the best teams in the nation and Michigan is still 4-1 in their last 5 games, winning 2 games in a row now too. Michigan has been crushing opponents by double digits all year and this Iowa team has shown many times this season that they don't have the talent to compete with the top of the conference. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan Iowa Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 5, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan 81 Iowa 67.

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Michigan Wolverines: 1-5 ATS in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 5-11 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 8-22 ATS after playing a road game. 11-5 UNDER off a win against a conference rival.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 6-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 7-3 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 7-4 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 assists/game or more. 7-3 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game.

Michigan Wolverines:  L. Cason (G) Out - Knee. W. Grady (G-F) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Liburd (G-F) Out - Redshirt.

Iowa Hawkeyes:  P. McCollum (G) Out - Foot.

“I want to give our guys a lot of credit. They came in an extremely hostile environment against a very very, very talented basketball team that’s well coached. We got better by scouting, preparing for them by watching them this year. That’s a good group, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we continue to play well if we didn’t see them one or two more times down the line.” - Dusty May after his team’s win against Illinois in their last game. 

“He’s competing, probably. My staff does a lot of the substitutions. So they felt like he was competing defensively and felt like he could guard his position. So that’s why they played him.” - Ben McCollum on Brendan Hausen after his team’s loss against PSU in their last game. 

N. Burnett 

E. Cadeau 

M. Johnson 

Y. Lendeborg 

A. Mara

T. Banks 

K. Combs 

C. Koch 

C. Manyawu 

B. Stirtz

PPG: Yaxel Lendeborg (14.3)

APG: Elliot Cadeau (5.5)

Reb/G: Morez Johnson Jr. (7.4)

PPG: Bennett Stirtz (20.5)

APG: Bennett Stirtz (4.5)

Reb/G: Tavion Banks (4.7)

Coaches:

Michigan Wolverines: Dusty May (2nd season)

Iowa Hawkeyes: Ben McCollum (1st season)