by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 03, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Michigan -21.5
FanDuel: Michigan -21.5
BetMGM: Michigan -21.5
Caesars: Michigan -21.5
Season record
No. 4 Michigan: 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten)
Indiana: 3-2 (1-1 Big Ten)
Another week, another crazy set of circumstances in college football! Georgia almost loss, Bryce Young left but Alabama still won, etc. All the craziness, all the drama through a month into the season. What in the world are we getting next? How about starting with a 6-1-0 run from Kyle Hunter this past weekend? Our top handicapper in the college football realm had himself a very good week. What will next week have in store with a lot of shakings in the top 25 to be expected? Make sure to follow all of our champion handicappers and their picks in our Best Bets section, where you can expect more of Kyle's and others' picks to get you on the right side of winning this week at bigal.com.
Michigan - Indiana preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Michigan: won 27-14 at Iowa
Indiana: lost 35-21 at Nebraska
It hasn’t been the easiest path for the Michigan Wolverines to get off to a 5-0 start, but one thing you can certainly say about this group is they’re consistent. After running roughshod through their non-conference schedule, the Wolverines have opened Big Ten play with a gritty home win against a good Maryland team, and just last week held off a pesty Iowa team in a Big Ten title rematch that ultimately ended up the way that game went in December. Michigan was again paced by a solid effort from J.J. McCarthy, who threw just six incompletions and didn’t turn the ball over. Blake Corum had another great day running the ball, going for 133 yards and a touchdown. But it’s the Michigan defense that is still looking strong in this one (I know, it doesn’t take much to do so against Iowa’s inept offense), holding Iowa off the board until the fourth quarter when the Wolverines were up 20.
It hasn’t been the easiest path for the Michigan Wolverines to get off to a 5-0 start, but one thing you can certainly say about this group is they’re consistent. After running roughshod through their non-conference schedule, the Wolverines have opened Big Ten play with a gritty home win against a good Maryland team, and just last week held off a pesty Iowa team in a Big Ten title rematch that ultimately ended up the way that game went in December. Michigan was again paced by a solid effort from J.J. McCarthy, who threw just six incompletions and didn’t turn the ball over. Blake Corum had another great day running the ball, going for 133 yards and a touchdown. But it’s the Michigan defense that is still looking strong in this one (I know, it doesn’t take much to do so against Iowa’s inept offense), holding Iowa off the board until the fourth quarter when the Wolverines were up 20.
"I thought we did a good job of (patience)," coach Jim Harbaugh said. "I thought we were just moving them off the ball really well."
Michigan has not lost any pace since going with McCarthy at quarterback. The sophomore has been a steady hand under center with six touchdown passes to zero interceptions. He’s also completed 78.6% of his passes. Again, we have to take the first three games with a grain of salt considering they were the easiest games ever to Mankind in getting victories out of. But these types of Big Ten games are good practice, generally speaking, for McCarthy should he want to continue at being a good quarterback for this team. Right now, he’s not going to wow opponents with his yards, but he’s bringing a steady pace. So long as he can do that and make more plays than Cade McNamara did, then Michigan is in good hands.
The Indiana Hoosiers are the laughing stock of the last weekend in the college football world. After a 3-0 start that ended with a loss to Cincinnati, that was deemed understandable. Then the Hoosiers faced the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers, who were the laughing stock of the college football world up until this past Saturday. Indiana lost 35-21 for its first conference loss of the season. A 21-21 tie was broken in the fourth when Casey Thompson hit Trey Palmer for a 71-yard touchdown to essentially put Indiana behind the 8-ball the rest of the way. Connor Bazelak threw for 223 yards and a touchdown, as well as an INT, but the majority of Indiana’s offense came through the air. The Hoosiers had just 290 total yards of offense. They were without receivers Cam Camper and D.J. Matthews due to injuries.
"Obviously, they're huge parts of our offense," Bazelak said. "So it was tough not having them, but we had some guys step up and we made some plays but we've got to find ways to make more."
Michigan opened as 21.5-point favorites. History indicates that hasn’t been a good number to play against the spread with the Wolverines going 1-4 in their last five as a road favorite between 21.5 and 28 points. It hasn’t happened often, either, with those games only happening since 1992. But straight up, Michigan has won four of those five. The Wolverines are 17-4 straight up as a favorite in their last 21. If you’re not playing the spread, think carefully if the moneyline is even worth tit.
Prediction
This shouldn’t be a hard game for Michigan’s defense to put a stamp on. Indiana has been known to play spoiler in the past, but there’s no way I can conceivably think they can hang with the Wolverines a week after getting embarrassed by Nebraska. Michigan by 24
Betting trends
Michigan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games.
Michigan is 7-4 ATS off an under in its last 11.
Indiana is 10-15 ATS in its last 25 games overall.
Indiana is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover in four of its last five.
Statistical leaders
Michigan:
Passing: J.J. McCarthy -- 848 yards, 6 TD
Rushing: Blake Corum -- 611 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Ronnie Bell -- 269 yards, 1 TD
Indiana:
Passing: Connor Bazelak -- 1,394 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Shaun Shivers -- 345 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Cam Camper -- 418 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Michigan Wolverines - Indiana Hoosiers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
