Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/27/2026

Game Time: 9:45 pm ET, Friday, March 27, 2026

Venue:  Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +1.5, UConn -1.5; Over/Under:  135.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +1.5, UConn -1.5; Over/Under:  135.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +1.5, UConn -1.5; Over/Under:  135.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  27-7 (15-5) (3rd place, Big Ten)

UConn Huskies:  31-5 (17-3) (2nd place, Big East)

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Michigan State Spartans:  3-2  last 5

UConn Huskies:  4-1  last 5

Michigan State is entering this game with a 27-7 record overall, a 15-5 record in conference games, and they are 6-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Louisville Cardinals in their last game. Coen Carr led the team in points in that game with 21 while Jeremy Fears Jr. and Trey Fort each were next on the team with 12. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 16 in that game while Coen Carr led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 47.3% from the field, 42.3% from 3-point range, and 73.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.4 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 17-15-2 this season and their O/U record is 16-18.

UConn is entering this game with a 31-5 record overall, a 17-3 conference record, and they are 7-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the UCLA Bruins in their last game. Alex Karaban led the team in points in that game with 27 while Braylon Mullins was next on the team with 17. Malachi Smith led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Tarris Reed Jr. led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 46.9% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 90.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 77.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65.1 PPG against them. UConn has an ATS record of 14-22 this season and their O/U record is 18-18.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked good in their games this season with their 27-7 record overall and their 15-5 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great in their neutral site games too with their 6-1 record in those. Meanwhile, UConn has looked really good in their games this season with their 31-5 record overall and their 17-3 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big East. They are also 7-1 in their neutral site games this season. UConn was given a 2 seed for this tournament and they are the highest seeded team in their conference, but they didn't win the regular season nor did they win the Big East Tournament, and this was a bit of a down year for the Big East too. They were bested by St John's once again and they did struggle against inferior opponents throughout the season too. They are off a double digit win over UCLA in their last one and they have looked better in this tournament, but they have had some scoring troubles at times and this hasn't been a strong offense all season either. Michigan State didn't win anything in the Big Ten this season, but they did play in a much tougher conference with a lot of teams that have been performing really well in this tournament. They are also off a win over Louisville in their last one and they looked in control of that game for most of it. Michigan State is going to pose a real threat to UConn here with the style that they play and they have the talent to pull off this upset. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State UConn Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 27, 2026 (9:45 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 74 UConn 71.

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Michigan State Spartans: 6-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 12-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 10-3 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 9-5 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game.

UConn Huskies: 13-22 ATS in all games. 13-22 ATS as a favorite. 12-20 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 turnovers/game or less. 6-1 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5. 8-2 UNDER in a post-season tournament game.

Michigan State Spartans:  D. Wojcik (G) Questionable - Shoulder. D. Ugochukwu (G) Out - Foot. K. Glenn (F) Out - Knee.

UConn Huskies:  J. Stewart (F) Questionable - Knee.

"This is tear-jerking for me because I'm watching guys grow in front of me like it's supposed to happen. Jeremy has grown up so much this year. Trey has had a miserable year for what he was expecting and for what we were expecting. And instead of quitting, instead of doing when the going gets tough, nowadays everybody gets out of dodge, he's stuck with it.” - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against Louisville in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. 

"We shot 33 percent from three, and it felt like we were the Warriors, man, it was incredible." - Dan Hurley after his team’s win against UCLA in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday.

C. Carr 

C. Cooper 

J. Fears 

J. Kohler 

J. Scott

S. Ball 

S. Demary 

A. Karaban 

B. Mullins 

T. Reed

PPG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.3)

APG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.4)

Reb/G: Jaxon Kohler (8.9)

PPG: Tarris Reed Jr. (14.2)

APG: Silas Demary Jr. (6.1)

Reb/G: Tarris Reed Jr. (8.9)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (31st season)

UConn Huskies: Dan Hurley (8th season)