by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 24, 2026
Venue: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: MSU +14, UCLA -14; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: MSU +14, UCLA -14; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: MSU +14, UCLA -14; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Michigan State Spartans: 2-5 (0-4) (18th place, Big Ten)
UCLA Bruins: 6-0 (4-0) (1st place, Big Ten)
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Michigan State Spartans: lost their last game at home against the Northwestern Wildcats 24-21.
UCLA Bruins: won their last game at home against the Wisconsin Badgers 17-7.
Michigan State Spartans vs UCLA Bruins Preview and Analysis
Michigan State is entering this game with a 2-5 record overall and they have a 0-4 record in their conference games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Northwestern 24-21. Alessio Milivojevic was the starting QB and he completed 19/30 passes for 216 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jaziun Patterson led the team in rushing yards with 72. Chrishon McCray led the receivers with 64 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Dion Crawford led the defense in that game with 14 tackles while Ben Roberts and Anelu Lafaele each led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
UCLA is entering this game with a 6-0 record overall and they have a 4-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Wisconsin 17-7. Ty Dieffenbach was the starting QB and he completed 22/33 passes for 264 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Anthony Woods led the team in rushing yards with 39 and 1 TD. Semaj Morgan led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jalen Woods led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Jalen Woods, Mason Rivera, and Scott Taylor each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Michigan State vs UCLA Prediction
The current betting odds have UCLA listed as a 14 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. UCLA has looked great in their games this season with their 6-0 record overall and their 4-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home field too with their 3-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-5 record overall and their 0-4 conference record which has them right at the bottom of the Big Ten. They have been a bad road team too with their 0-2 road record this year. Michigan State hired a new head coach this season and they have been having a lot of trouble turning things around this year. They were terrible to start conference play, but lately they have looked a lot better in their games. They are coming off a 24-21 loss to Northwestern in their last one and they were so close to winning that one, but that was a big game for their head coach against his former team and they put a lot of effort into winning that one at home. Now this isn't a great situation for them off that emotional loss and going across the country to play the only undefeated team left in the conference. UCLA has been rolling in their games this season with a great offense that has been putting up a ton of points. Their offense hasn't looked as good in their last 2 games, but the defense has been stepping up now and they have looked like one of the best teams in the Big Ten with the JMU coaching bump. They are coming off a 17-7 win over Wisconsin without their starting QB and this should be another team that they roll over, playing one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. The best way to place a bet here is on UCLA to cover the spread in this game.
Michigan State UCLA Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is UCLA 28 Michigan State 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Michigan State Spartans: 8-3 ATS as a road underdog. 8-4 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 6-1 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. 5-2 UNDER off a home loss against a conference rival. 7-4 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less.
UCLA Bruins: 15-28 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 53-72 ATS off a home win. 17-28 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 26-17 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 27-17 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Key Injuries
Michigan State Spartans: C. Edwards (RB) Questionable - Knee. C. Fancher (QB) Questionable - Knee. C. Wheatland (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Taplin (WR) Questionable - Foot.
UCLA Bruins: N. Iamaleava (QB) Out - Leg. R. Pleasant (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Davis (OG) Out - Undisclosed. J. Phifer (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Yoon (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Matthews (WR) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Like I said all week, this game is about the players. We got another big one (game) against UCLA next week. I look back at my time at Northwestern fondly.” - Pat Fitzgerald after his team’s loss against Northwestern in their last game.
“Ty, what a job. To stand in there and have the confidence to do what he did. What a warrior just all the way around.” - Bob Chesney after his team’s win against Wisconsin in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Michigan State Spartans
WR Bullard Jr., Rodney
WR Moore, Fredrick
WR McCray, Chrishon
TE Savoury, Jayden
QB Milivojevic, Alessio
RB Patterson, Jaziun
UCLA Bruins
WR Rowe Jr., Brian
WR Ellis, Landon
WR Morgan, Semaj
TE Loftin, Brayden
QB Dieffenbach, Ty
RB Knight, Wayne
Statistical Leaders
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: Alessio Milivojevic (1,263)
Rushing: Jaziun Patterson (327)
Receiving: Jayden Savoury (261)
Touchdowns: Jaziun Patterson (6)
UCLA Bruins
Passing: Nico Iamaleava (982)
Rushing: Wayne Knight (571)
Receiving: Semaj Morgan (313)
Touchdowns: Wayne Knight (12)
Coaches:
Michigan State Spartans: Pat Fitzgerald (1st season)
UCLA Bruins: Bob Chesney (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
