Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

by James Q

Michigan State Spartans vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

 
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 6th, 2021
Venue:  Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana
Where to Watch: ABC
 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Michigan State -3; Over/Under: 53 points
Circa:  Spread: Michigan State -3; Over/Under:  53 points
VegasInsider:  Spread:  Michigan State -3; Over/Under: 53 points
 

Season Record

Michigan State: 5-0 conf, 8-0 overall (Big ten)
Purdue: 3-2 conf, 5-3 overall (Big ten)

Michigan State is undefeated and coming off a big rivalry win over Michigan and that chronic choker Jim Harbaugh.  The spread makes this matchup practically even on the moneyline?.. 

Bookmakers have set the point spread on this game between 2.5 and 3.5.  Purdue is 5-3 overall, but in Purdue betting trends 4-4 ATS on the season. How are the Boilermakers not bigger underdogs?  This should be no contest.
 
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Michigan State vs Purdue Preview and Analysis

RECENT FORM
Purdue has 12 takeaways this season while Michigan State has 9 giveaways… maybe those are the season stats that has created this line.  The Key Metrics fans look toward are usually wins and losses.  We have to look closer.

Offensive Analysis

The Spartans offense is the 33rd ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 32 touchdowns on 444.6 ypg.  The passing game ranks 55th in the FBS with 244.4 yards per game.  They have a total of 15 touchdown passes… which is low for an unbeaten team, but made up for by the 32nd ranked rushing offense that pulls down 200.2 ypg. The Spartans rank 71st in the FBS in turnovers… that is right in the middle.
 
The Purdue stats have careened this year.  Going up and down after wins and losses.  Purdue is now 77th in the FBS in total offense.  They have scored 20 touchdowns on 386.6 yards per game for 3093 total yards.  They are average to slightly below average in total offense.  The Boilermakers rely on a combined quarterback effort between Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell… if one of them could move to running back maybe the rushing offense wouldn’t be as weak as it is.

Defensive Analysis

Michigan State is 103rd in the FBS in total defense.  They have given up a generous 17 touchdowns on 424.6 yards per game.  ** Here is the stat that is holding the point spread to 3.  Michigan State wins games by outscoring the opposition… not necessarily by stopping the opposition. Their Red Zone defense is 76th in the FBS.  Still…. Is that enough to think that Purdue will be able to do what Michigan couldn’t and cover a 3 point spread against the high scoring Michigan State?  I don’t think so.

Purdue’s defense is strong… only 1 Purdue game has gone Over the point total. The Boilermakers are 17th in total defense.  They have given up a stingy 15 touchdowns on 314 yards per game.  Defense is what keeps them in it.  They rank 24th in red zone defense.

Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, November 1st, is…  Michigan State 35 - Purdue 21

Michigan State and the Over… a pretty safe bet.


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NCAAF Betting Trends

Michigan State 7-1 ATS this season.
Michigan State 6-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive SU wins over the last 3 seasons.
Purdue is 6-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over last 3 seasons.
Purdue is 9-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons as an Underdog.


Key Injuries

Michigan State: LB Itayvion Brown (undisclosed) ** LB Carson Casteel (undisclosed) Quest
CB Khary Crump (undisclosed) Quest ** WR Ian Stewart (undisclosed) Quest ** WR Ricky White (personal) Quest

Purdue: RB JaQuez Cross (personal) Quest ** TE Garrett Miller (undisclosed) Quest ** K Chris Van Eekeren (undisclosed) Quest

Starting Lineups

Michigan State players:  QB Payton Thorne, RB Kenneth Walker III, TE Connor Heyward, WR Jatden Reed, WR Jalen Nailor, WR Tre Mosley, LT Jarrett Horst, LG J.D. Duplain, OC Matt Allen, RG Kevin Jarvis, RT AJ Arcuri

Purdue players: QB Aiden O’Connell, RB King Doerue, TE Payne Durham, WR Jackson Anthrop, WR Milton Wright, WR David Bell, LT Greg Long, Lg Spencer Holstege OC Gus Hartwig, RG Tyler Witt, RT Eric Miller, 

Coaches

Michigan State: Mel Tucker
Purdue: Jeff Brohm

Weather Forecast

Mostly Sunny.  Humidity 64%. 52* for the high.  Wind at 7 mph.



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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