Michigan State Spartans vs Oregon Ducks Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/04/2024

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Friday, October 4, 2024

Venue:  Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +24, Oregon -24; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +24, Oregon -24; Over/Under:  52 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +24, Oregon -24; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  3-2 (1-1) (12th place, Big Ten)

Oregon Ducks:  4-0 (1-0) (4th place, Big Ten)

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Michigan State Spartans:  lost their last game at home against the Ohio State Buckeyes 38-7.

Oregon Ducks:  won their last game on the road against the UCLA Bruins 34-13.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Ohio State 38-7. Aidan Chiles was the starting QB and he completed 13/19 passes for 167 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Kay'ron Lynch-Adams led the team in rushing yards with 35. Jaron Glover led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Jordan Turner led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jordan Turner came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Oregon is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against UCLA 34-13. Dillon Gabriel was the starting QB and he completed 31/41 passes for 278 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan James led the team in rushing yards with 103 and 1 TD. Tez Johnson led the receivers with 121 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 2 TDs. Nikko Reed led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Jeffrey Bassa, Matayo Uiagalelei, and Jordan Burch each led the defense in sacks with 1. Bryce Boettcher and Tysheem Johnson each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Oregon listed as a 24 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Oregon has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They are coming off their 1st conference win in the Big Ten, beating UCLA 34-13 on the road, and now they will be playing their 1st home game in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall and their 1-1 conference record. They haven't been great, but they have improved a lot from last season. They have shown some good defense in their games too, but now they are coming off a 38-7 loss in their last game against Ohio State. Michigan State got off to a good start in that one, but once Ohio State got rolling in the game, there wasn't much MSU could do to stop them. They lost that game by 31 points at home and now they will be on the road against another really good team, Oregon, and they have to travel to the West Coast for this game too. Michigan State has struggled on offense this season too so their defense will only be able to do so much here. Eventually, the Oregon offense will start to pull away in this home game and Michigan State won't be able to stop them. The best way to place a bet here is on Oregon to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State Oregon Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, October 4, 2024 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Oregon 42 Michigan State 10.

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Michigan State Spartans: 0-5 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 4-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 4-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 7-1 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-4 UNDER as a road underdog. 10-4 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 

Oregon Ducks: 19-9 ATS as a favorite. 10-5 ATS in home lined games. 10-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 9-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 7-4 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10-5 1H UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 10-5 1H UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Rucker (DB) Out - Undisclosed. A. Dunn (DL) Out - Undisclosed. K. Phillips (OL) Out - Undisclosed. J. Glover (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Majeed (DB) Out - Lower Body. D. Tatum (DB) Out - Lower Body. A. Brown (WR) Out - Upper Body.

Oregon Ducks:  A. Pugliano (TE) Out - Undisclosed. G. Bryant (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Terrell (DB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Gardner (DL) Out - Undisclosed. A. Boyle (K) Out - Undisclosed. D. Iuli (OL) Out - Undisclosed. D. Fields (DB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Florence (DB) Out - Undisclosed.

“We did not help ourselves.” - Jonathan Smith after his team’s loss against Ohio State in their last game. 

“It was a complete game in a lot of ways. Dillon continues to prove that he’s a savvy quarterback. He did a good job of utilizing his feet when the first answer wasn’t there and moving on to the next look. The defense played their best game yet. After the first series we figured out their rhythm and what they were going to be doing.” - Dan Lanning after his team’s win against UCLA in their last game. 

WR Glover, Jaron 

WR Foster Jr., Montorie 

WR Johnson, Aziah

TE Velling, Jack

QB Chiles, Aidan 

RB Carter, Nate 

FB Coyne, Jay 

WR Holden, Traeshon

WR Stewart, Evan

WR Johnson, Tez

TE Ferguson, Terrance

QB Gabriel, Dillon

RB James, Jordan

Passing: A. Chiles (1058)

Rushing: K. Lynch-Adams (306)

Receiving: N. Marsh (262)

Touchdowns: A. Chiles (3)

Passing: D. Gabriel (1192)

Rushing: J. James (386)

Receiving: T. Johnson (311)

Touchdowns: J. James (4)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Jonathan Smith (1st season)

Oregon Ducks: Dan Lanning (3rd season)