by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 15, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 20, 2021
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: MSU +18.5, OSU -18.5; Over/Under: 67 points
Bet365: Point Spread: MSU +18.5, OSU -18.5; Over/Under: 67 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: MSU +19.5, OSU -19.5; Over/Under: 67.5 points
Season Record
Michigan State Spartans: 9-1 (2nd place, Big Ten East)
Ohio State Buckeyes: 9-1 (1st place, Big Ten East)
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Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Michigan State Spartans: won at home on Nov. 13 against the Maryland Terrapins 40-21.
Ohio State Buckeyes: won at home on Nov. 13 against the Purdue Boilermakers 59-31.
Michigan State Spartans Analysis
MSU is coming into this game with a 9-1 record overall and they are 4-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 8th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 6-1 in their conference games this season. They only have 1 loss all season and that came two weeks ago but they are coming into this one off of a win in their last game. Payton Thorne played well in that game as he completed 22/30 passes for 287 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Kenneth Walker had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 143 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 carries. Jayden Reed also had a nice day as he led the receivers with 114 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions while Montorie Foster and Connor Heyward caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Xavier Henderson and Darius Snow both led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one each. Henderson along with Jeff Pietrowski, Noah Harvey, and Kyle King all recorded sacks in that game with 1 each while Harvey came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 346 points in their 10 games this season averaging 34.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 225 points against them allowing 22.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 450.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 444 YPG.
Ohio State Buckeyes Analysis
OSU is coming into this game with a 9-1 record overall and they are 5-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 8th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 7-0 in their conference games this season. They only have 1 loss this season and they have won 8 games straight since then, coming into this one off of another win in their last game. CJ Stroud played great in that game as he completed 31/38 passes for 361 yards and 5 touchdowns. Miyan Williams had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 117 yards on 14 carries while TreVeyon Henderson had 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries. Garrett Wilson also ran in 1 TD on the ground in that one. Jaxon Smith-Njigba also had a nice day as he led the receivers with 139 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions while Garrett Wilson was right behind him with 126 yards and 3 touchdowns on 10 receptions. Chris Olave also had 85 receiving yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions in that one. Denzel Burke led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. No one on the defense recorded a sack or an interception for them in that one. They have scored 463 points in their 10 games this season averaging 46.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 202 points against them allowing 20.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 550.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 368.8 YPG.
Michigan State vs Ohio State Prediction
OSU is coming into this game as an 18.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. OSU has been playing really well in their games ever since losing early in the season and they seem to be ramping up even more as each week goes by. MSU has had a very good season but they are nothing on both offense and defense compared to the way OSU is playing right now. OSU is only ranked number 4 in the nation and they are still not safe or secured a spot in the college football playoffs. They will be on a mission in these last few games to guarantee that happens and that means blowing out everyone they can by as much as possible to shoot up even more in the rankings. The best bet to place in this game is on OSU to cover the spread here as they will be determined to lay a beating down on MSU in this game.
Michigan State Ohio State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 20, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is OSU 49 MSU 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Michigan State Spartans: 156-145 O/U in all games. 76-55 O/U as an underdog. 37-28 O/U as a road underdog. 67-48 O/U in road games. 107-95 O/U against conference opponents.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 60-54 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 209-160 ATS in all games. 177-139 ATS as a favorite. 100-85 ATS as a home favorite. 106-87 ATS in home games. 139-104 ATS against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Michigan State Spartans: T. Gillison (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. M. Carrick (G) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. I. Stewart (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Ohio State Buckeyes: E. Vimahi (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. J. McKenzie (DT) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. G. Scott Jr. (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
“He's played in games before, he's been there. He's a very important part of our defense, a very important player on our team. Everyone has a role, and every single role is significant, whether you’re playing or you're not. And so he stepped up.” - Mel Tucker on the performance of Noah Harvey in their win against Maryland.
"It's going to build a lot of confidence. I don't think our guys were lacking confidence, I just think after the last two weeks — we were on edge a little bit this week, to be honest with you. We just wanted to get back in this game, score in the red zone and get our nose dirty a little bit, and I think we did that." - Ryan Day on his team’s win against Purdue in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Michigan State Spartans
WR Reed, Jayden
WR Nailor, Jalen
WR Mosley, Tre
TE Heyward, Connor
QB Thorne, Payton
RB Walker III, Kenneth
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Wilson, Garrett
WR Olave, Chris
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE Ruckert, Jeremy
QB Stroud, C.J.
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
Statistical Leaders
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: P. Thorne (2460)
Rushing: K. Walker III (1483)
Receiving: J. Reed (829)
Touchdowns: K. Walker III (17)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Passing: C. Stroud (3036)
Rushing: T. Henderson (1035)
Receiving: J. Smith-Njigba (1027)
Touchdowns: T. Henderson (14)
Coaches:
Michigan State Spartans: Mel Tucker (2nd season)
Ohio State Buckeyes: Ryan Day (4th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
