by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 10, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 11, 2023
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: MSU +31, OSU -31; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: MSU +31.5, OSU -31.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: MSU +31.5, OSU -31.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Michigan State Spartans: 3-6 (1-5) (7th place, Big Ten East)
Ohio State Buckeyes: 9-0 (6-0) (2nd place, Big Ten East)
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Michigan State Spartans: won their last game at home against the Nebraska Cornhuskers 20-17.
Ohio State Buckeyes: won their last game on the road against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 35-16.
Michigan State Spartans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and Analysis
Michigan State is entering this game with a 3-6 record overall and they have a 1-5 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Nebraska 20-17. Katin Houser was the starting QB and he completed 13/20 passes for 165 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Nathan Carter led the team in rushing yards with 50. Montorie Foster Jr. led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Dillon Tatum led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Jalen Thompson led the defense in sacks with 2. Jaden Mangham and Khalil Majeed each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Ohio State is entering this game with a 9-0 record overall and they have a 6-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 5-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Rutgers 35-16. Kyle McCord was the starting QB and he completed 19/26 passes for 189 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 1 TD. TreVeyon Henderson led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Sonny Styles led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Ty Hamilton led the defense in sacks with 1. Jordan Hancock came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Michigan State vs Ohio State Prediction
The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 31 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State is only 3-6 this season and they have been terrible in their conference games too with their 1-5 record in the Big Ten. They are also 0-3 in their road games this year but they do have some momentum from a win in their last game. Ohio State has been rolling all season with their 9-0 record overall and 6-0 conference record. Ohio State does have some really good wins under their belt this season but they have also played in a lot of closer and lower scoring games with their defense being one of the best in the country but their offense struggling a lot more to put up points. Ohio State is going to win this game by double digits but this is a really big number to cover and with the way their offense has looked all season, they might just score enough points to hit this number but they aren't going to shut out Michigan State either so MSU will keep this close enough to keep it within the number here. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game.
Michigan State Ohio State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 11, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is OSU 38 MSU 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Michigan State Spartans: 20-35 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 2-4 ATS as an underdog. 30-13 OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 27-18 OVER off an upset win as an underdog.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 21-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49. 12-5 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 5-1 ATS after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. 14-6 OVER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. 8-4 OVER off 2 consecutive road wins.
Key Injuries
Michigan State Spartans: D. Snow (LB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. M. Carr (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Glover (WR) Ques Sat - Foot. B. Baldwin (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Primm (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. T. Mosley (WR) Out Sat - Undisclosed. N. Kim (QB) Mid Nov - Undisclosed. J. Berger (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. J. Martinez (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. K. Talley (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. Dellinger (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Barbarin (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. S. Ramil (OL) out for season - Knee. G. Broscious (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Windmon (LB) out for season - Pectoral. Q. Carter (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. S. Melvin (DB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Gaoteote (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. VanSumeren (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. A. Smith (DB) out for season - Undisclosed. T. Hopper (TE) Out indefinitely - Leg.
Ohio State Buckeyes: J. Royer (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. D. Brown (QB) Mid Nov - Ankle. L. Ransom (S) Ques Sat - Leg. D. Burke (CB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. N. Baudo (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Williams (RB) out for season - Undisclosed. T. Caffey (RB) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Mitchell (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. K. Grayes (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Bonsu (S) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. R. Stocksdale (WR) out for season - Knee. Z. Herbstreit (TE) out for season - Undisclosed. B. Christian (TE) out for season - Suspension.
Notable Quotes
“Great attention to detail. You got to have great attention to detail. … We can’t beat ourselves. Great attention to detail will help us not beat ourselves and get those costly penalties. Give ourselves a chance. Don’t help them beat us, make them beat us. Have them earn the right to beat us. That’s what we got to start. And then we move from there. Great attention to detail is always going to be a major factor. And that great attention to detail means doing your job, playing with great discipline, great eye control and great physicality.” - Harlon Bennett on what his team needs to do to beat OSU this week.
“Our goal is to be No. 1 one at the end. All it means is we are off to a good start and we’ve beaten some good teams. It doesn’t mean anything to us. It’s good for the fans. We know we’re going to take everyone’s best shot and we did today. Give Rutgers credit.” - Ryan Day after his team’s win against Rutgers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Michigan State Spartans
WR Foster Jr., Montorie
WR Glover, Jaron
WR Mosley, Tre
TE Carr, Maliq
QB Kim, Noah
RB Carter, Nathan
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Harrison Jr., Marvin
WR Fleming, Julian
WR Egbuka, Emeka
TE Stover, Cade
QB McCord, Kyle
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
Statistical Leaders
Michigan State Spartans
Passing: N. Kim (1090)
Rushing: N. Carter (659)
Receiving: M. Foster Jr. (436)
Touchdowns: N. Carter (4)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Passing: K. McCord (2352)
Rushing: T. Henderson (585)
Receiving: M. Harrison Jr. (914)
Touchdowns: M. Harrison Jr. (10)
Coaches:
Michigan State Spartans: Harlon Barnett (Interim)
Ohio State Buckeyes: Ryan Day (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
