by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 27, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Michigan -23
FanDuel: Michigan -22.5
BetMGM: Michigan -22.5
Caesars: Michigan -22.5
Season record
Michigan State: 3-4 (1-3 Big Ten)
No. 4 Michigan: 7-0 (4-0 Big Ten)
We’re quickly approaching the fun time of the year where conference title games are made and upsets are the norm in college football. After minimal change in the top-25 polls this week, what in the world can we expect this time around? One thing you can be sure of is Kyle Hunter and his 22-9-0 mark in college football over the last month. Sean Murphy has also seen a profitable month at 28-15-0 over the last 30 days. What does the world have in store this time around with what should be another exciting week of college football? Follow our best bets page and make sure to be in tune with what our champion handicappers have to say this week!
Michigan State - Michigan preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Michigan State: won 34-28 (2OT) vs. Wisconsin
Michigan: won 41-17 vs. No. 10 Penn State
It has been a rough road for the Michigan State Spartans after starting 2-0. That followed with a four-game losing streak which was capped off by a 29-point loss to Ohio State. The Spartans put an end to that streak on Oct. 15 with a double-overtime victory over Wisconsin, 34-28. It shouldn't take much for Payton Thorne to outduel Graham Mertz, but that’s exactly what the Michigan State quarterback did, completing 21 of 28 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns, one of them going to Jayden Reed from 27 yards out in the second overtime to win the game for the Spartans. In a classic Big Ten game, and not in a good way, the Spartangs outgained Wisconsin 389-283 and had to go to overtime, which almost seems apropos at some point. Reed caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, and Keon Coleman caught 5 passes for 79 yards and two scores, one from *checks notes* Jayden Reed from 25 yards out in what was a dominant outing from the MSU star receiver.
It has been a rough road for the Michigan State Spartans after starting 2-0. That followed with a four-game losing streak which was capped off by a 29-point loss to Ohio State. The Spartans put an end to that streak on Oct. 15 with a double-overtime victory over Wisconsin, 34-28. It shouldn't take much for Payton Thorne to outduel Graham Mertz, but that’s exactly what the Michigan State quarterback did, completing 21 of 28 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns, one of them going to Jayden Reed from 27 yards out in the second overtime to win the game for the Spartans. In a classic Big Ten game, and not in a good way, the Spartangs outgained Wisconsin 389-283 and had to go to overtime, which almost seems apropos at some point. Reed caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, and Keon Coleman caught 5 passes for 79 yards and two scores, one from *checks notes* Jayden Reed from 25 yards out in what was a dominant outing from the MSU star receiver.
''They had walked their (linebacker) up off the edge,'' said Thorne. ''We really hadn't seen that look all day. So I'm thinking he's probably coming, and even if he's bluffing, they might be bringing something from the other side which on the play we called it's not great.''
The No. 4 Michigan Wolverines have shown last year was no fluke and there’s a large possibility that they can build off that. At the very least, they’re building toward an epic showdown with Ohio State on the horizon. But the Wolverines will put their 7-0 record on the line when they host the Spartans in this one-sided battle. Michigan is coming off a 41-17 win at home over No. 10 Penn State in what was likely the biggest test before Ohio State for Michigan to prove that it belongs in this upper echelon. In what was a dominant running performance from the Wolverines, Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum ran for 166 yards and two touchdowns, while Donovan Edwards actually ran for 173 and two scores. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy didn’t need to do much while completing 17 of 24 passes for 145 yards. But for all this talk of a quarterback, it’s been the running game and defense that has carried Michigan to this point. The Wolverines defense held Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford to just 120 yards on 7 of 19 passing.
Prediction
Michigan has lost two straight to Michigan State, but that’s when the Spartans were contending for a conference title or even sniffing a top-25 spot. That’s not the case this year. Thorne doesn’t have the weapons that he did last year and it’s slowly showing in an agonizing way. Michigan can dominate a game with either running back and is about to face a Michigan State team that has given up 153 rushing yards per game. This is going to be a long day for the Michigan State defense, on the road, against one of the best teams in the country at running the ball and defensively. Michigan by 27
Betting trends
Michigan State is 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog.
Michigan State is 38-42 ATS since 1992 as a road underdog.
Michigan is 14-9 ATS as a favorite (4-3 this season) over the last three years.
Michigan is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 against conference opponents.
Statistical leaders
Michigan State:
Passing: Payton Thorne -- 1,499 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Jalen Berger -- 367 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Keon Coleman -- 393 yards, 5 TD
Michigan:
Passing: J.J. McCarthy -- 1,297 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Blake Corum -- 901 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Ronnie Bell -- 429 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Michigan State Spartans - Michigan Wolverines prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
