Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/30/2023

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Sep 29, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023
Venue:  Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Where to Watch:  NBC


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +12.5, Iowa -12.5; Over/Under:  36.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +12, Iowa -12; Over/Under:  36.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +12.5, Iowa -12.5; Over/Under:  36.5 points

Season Record

Michigan State Spartans:  2-2 (0-1) (6th place, Big Ten East)
Iowa Hawkeyes:  3-1 (0-1) (4th place, Big Ten West)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Kyle Hunter is on a HOT STREAK in the NCAAF as he is 74-33 his last 107 CFB plays! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Recent Form
Michigan State Spartans:  lost their last game at home against the Maryland Terrapins 31-9.
Iowa Hawkeyes:  lost their last game on the road against the Penn State Nittany Lions 31-0.


Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Preview and Analysis


Michigan State is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Maryland 31-9. Noah Kim was the starting QB and he completed 18/33 passes for 190 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Nathan Carter led the team in rushing yards with 97. Montorie Foster led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Dillon Tatum led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Angelo Grose came away with the only interception for them in that game.
 
 
 
Iowa is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Penn State 31-0. Cade McNamara was the starting QB and he completed 5/14 passes for 42 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kamari Moulton led the team in rushing yards with 18. Erick All led the receivers with 35 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jay Higgins led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.


Michigan State vs Iowa Prediction

The current betting odds have Iowa listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Iowa is 3-1 this season and their defense has looked great in their games but their offense has been a big problem for them. They also got blanked by Penn State in their last game so they are going to be looking to bounce back at home here. Luckily for them, they have Michigan State rolling into town and they have been terrible all year as they are going through a coaching change too. They only put up 9 points at home against Maryland in their last game and 7 points at home against Washington. Iowa doesn't have the offense that those teams have but they definitely have a good defense that can match them if not better and they are going to keep Michigan State from scoring here. Iowa is also determined to make McNamara work as their QB and he has the motivation too so he will be looking to have a much better performance on this MSU defense that has been giving up a ton of points in their games. Iowa may not score a ton of points here but they won't need to score a lot to cover this spread as their defense will hang in there. The best way to place a bet here is on Iowa to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State Iowa Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 30, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Iowa 20 MSU 3.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Michigan State Spartans Iowa Hawkeyes prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.

NCAAF Betting Trends


Michigan State Spartans: 18-36 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points. 18-30 ATS off a home loss against a conference rival. 8-3 UNDER in road games. 24-15 UNDER after a loss by 21 or more points.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 37-23 ATS when the total is 42 or less. 10-1 ATS after gaining 75 or less passing yards in the last game. 21-12 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points. 20-11 UNDER in all games. 13-7 UNDER when the total is 42 or less. 

Key Injuries


Michigan State Spartans:  A. VanSumeren (DL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. G. Broscious (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. M. Gaoteote (LB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. S. Melvin (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Berger (RB) Ques Sat - Leg. J. Mangham (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. C. Dellinger (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. K. Talley (DL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. Q. Carter (LB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. C. Coley (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Martinez (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Mangham (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. S. Ramil (OL) out for season - Undisclosed. T. Hopper (TE) Out indefinitely - Leg.

Iowa Hawkeyes:  J. Patterson (RB) Doub Sat - Undisclosed. J. Labas (QB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Bostick (WR) Ques Sat - Foot. R. Osgood (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. A. Fahey (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. L. Lachey (TE) out for season - Ankle. K. Johnson (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.

Notable Quotes


“You can raise your hand and no love lost and then you can move on, it’s no problem. Nobody raised their hand. Nobody raised their hand. So, that’s a good sign.” - Harlon Barnett on his team after their loss against Maryland in their last game.


“I can promise you that we will be motivated for the rest of the season, but we have to get better after today. This is the worst feeling in the world. I don’t remember the last time I’ve ever felt this bad about a game let alone a day in my life.” - Cade McNamara after their loss against PSU in their last game. 


Starting Lineups


Michigan State Spartans
WR Foster Jr., Montorie 
WR Glover, Jaron 
WR Mosley, Tre 
TE Carr, Maliq 
QB Kim, Noah 
RB Carter, Nathan 

Iowa Hawkeyes
WR Vines, Diante
WR Anderson, Seth 
TE All, Erick  
QB McNamara, Cade 
RB Williams, Leshon 
FB Large, Hayden

Statistical Leaders


Michigan State Spartans
Passing: N. Kim (897)
Rushing: N. Carter (369)
Receiving: J. Glover (203)
Touchdowns: N. Carter (4)

Iowa Hawkeyes
Passing: C. McNamara (459)
Rushing: L. Williams (173)
Receiving: L. Lachey (131)
Touchdowns: K. Moulton (2)

Coaches:
Michigan State Spartans: Harlon Barnett (Interim)
Iowa Hawkeyes: Kirk Ferentz (25th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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