Michigan State Spartans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/06/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 6, 2025

Venue:  Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU -6.5, Iowa +6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU -6.5, Iowa +6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU -6.5, Iowa +6.5; Over/Under:  151.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  24-5 (15-3) (1st place, Big Ten)

Iowa Hawkeyes:  15-14 (6-12) (15th place, Big Ten)

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Michigan State Spartans:  5-0  last 5

Iowa Hawkeyes:  1-4  last 5

Michigan State is entering this game with a 24-5 record overall, a 15-3 record in conference games, and they are 7-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Wisconsin Badgers in their last game. Jaden Akins led the team in points in that game with 19 while Jase Richardson was next on the team with 11. Jase Richardson led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Jaxon Kohler led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 39.4% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 46.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.6 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 19-9-1 this season and their O/U record is 9-20.

Iowa is entering this game with a 15-14 record overall, a 6-12 conference record, and they are 12-5 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Northwestern Wildcats in their last game. Drew Thelwell led the team in points in that game with 14 while Josh Dix was next on the team with 10. Brock Harding led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Payton Sandfort led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 36.2% from the field, 32% from 3-point range, and 70% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 79.1 PPG against them. Iowa has an ATS record of 10-18-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-14.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked really good in their games this season with their 24-5 record overall and their 15-3 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have been a great road team with their 7-2 road record this season and they are well on their way to winning the Big Ten Title for the regular season. Meanwhile, Iowa hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 15-14 record overall and their 6-12 conference record which has them in the bottom half of the Big Ten. They have looked better on their home court with their 12-5 home record, but they haven't been a dominant team there either. They need to pull something together in these last 2 games of the regular season since they are in jeopardy of missing out of the Big Ten Tournament altogether, but they haven't looked good lately. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games with 2 losses in a row now and they are coming off a double digit loss to Northwestern in their last one. They haven't even had a tough schedule lately, but they have still been struggling to keep up in their games. Michigan State has been rolling lately and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 5 wins in a row now. They are coming off a 9 point win over Wisconsin in their last one and have multiple wins against ranked opponents during this 5 game winning streak. Michigan State has been rolling lately and Iowa won't be able to do much to slow them down here. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State Iowa Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 6, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 76 Iowa 66.

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Michigan State Spartans: 11-6 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 6-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game. 12-5 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders. 6-3 OVER on the road after 3 or more consecutive unders. 18-9 1H OVER in road games.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 4-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 10-26 ATS as an underdog. 14-26 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 34-16 OVER in all home games. 20-6 OVER in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Walton (F) Out - Redshirt.

Iowa Hawkeyes:  O. Freeman (F) Out - Finger.

“And third of all, we have bigger goals than just winning it. Winning it, and winning it outright. And there's other goals that we have, playing better all the time so we get more prepared for the tournaments that are coming up when it's one bad day, one bad half, and now you're out.” - Tom Izzo’s message to the team with the regular season almost over. 

“I’m fully committed to the program, to the players. I have no intention of moving on. I just came to work today, tried to figure out how we can beat Michigan State.” - Fran McCaffery on his future with Iowa basketball.

J. Akins 

J. Fears 

T. Holloman 

J. Kohler 

S. Zapala

J. Dix 

O. Freeman 

B. Harding 

P. Sandfort 

D. Thelwell

PPG: J. Akins (12.9)

APG: J. Fears (5.6)

Reb/G: J. Kohler (7.9)

PPG: O. Freeman (16.7)

APG: B. Harding (5.4)

Reb/G: O. Freeman (6.7)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (30th season)

Iowa Hawkeyes: Fran McCaffery (15th season)