Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/11/2024

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Thursday, January 11, 2024

Venue:  State Farm Center, Champaign, IL 

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MSU +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MSU +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MSU +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Michigan State Spartans:  9-6 (1-3) (11th place, Big Ten)

Illinois Fighting Illini:  11-3 (2-1) (3rd place, Big Ten)

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Michigan State Spartans:  4-1  last 5

Illinois Fighting Illini:  4-1  last 5

Michigan State is entering this game with a 9-6 record overall, a 1-3 record in conference games, and they are 0-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Northwestern Wildcats in their last game. Tyson Walker led the team in points per game in that game with 27 while AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins each were next on the team with 13. AJ Hoggard led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Carson Cooper led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 48.1% from the field, 47.4% from 3-point range, and 68.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65.9 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 8-7 this season and their O/U record is 8-7.

Illinois is entering this game with an 11-3 record overall, a 2-1 conference record, and they are 8-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Purdue Boilermakers in their last game. Marcus Domask led the team in points in that game with 26 while Quincy Guerrier was next on the team with 18. Coleman Hawkins led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Quincy Guerrier led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 42.6% from the field, 42.1% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.8 PPG against them. Illinois has an ATS record of 8-4-2 this season and their O/U record is 8-6.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked really good in their games this season with their 11-3 record overall which also has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country. They are 2-1 in their conference games this season but they are also 8-1 in their home games and have looked great on their home court. Meanwhile, Michigan State hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 9-6 record overall and they were ranked in the preseason rankings but have fallen off with their performances lately. They continue to lose the big games they have played against ranked teams and they have struggled in their road games too with a 0-2 road record this season. They haven't been good in the Big Ten either with their 1-3 conference record. Michigan State has been falling apart all season while Illinois has been building a great team and they have already proven themselves this year with some good ranked wins under their belt. Illinois has a good home advantage and they have looked like the much better team lately. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

Michigan State Illinois Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, January 11, 2024 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Illinois 84 MSU 76.

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Michigan State Spartans: 3-11 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. 8-17 ATS after allowing 85 points or more. 15-8 OVER in road games. 11-4 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 8-2 OVER after playing a game as a road favorite. 

Illinois Fighting Illini: 9-4 ATS in all games. 8-0 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 12-5 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more. 22-15 OVER after a game where they covered the spread. 14-4 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more.

Michigan State Spartans:  G. Normand (G) Out indefinitely - Foot. J. Fears Jr (G) Out indefinitely - Leg.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  T. Shannon Jr. (G) Out indefinitely - Suspension. N. Moretti (G) Out indefinitely - Leg. S. Harris (G) out for season - Redshirt.

"I am disappointed in the way we played. For the 29 years of players I had before this, that's disappointing. That's not Spartan basketball." - Tom Izzo after his team’s loss against Northwestern in their last game on Sunday.

“Trey Kaufman-Renn, man, I just told him out there in the hall he kicked our butt. I think when you play Zach, you can’t play normal. You have to try to make other players beat you and I think there’s some risk with that and we saw that tonight.” - Brad Underwood after his team’s loss against Purdue in their last game on Friday.

J. Akins 

M. Hall 

A. Hoggard 

M. Sissoko 

T. Walker

M. Domask 

Q. Guerrier 

C. Hawkins 

T. Rodgers 

T. Shannon

PPG: T. Walker (20.6)

APG: A. Hoggard (5.1)

Reb/G: M. Sissoko (6.6)

PPG: T. Shannon Jr. (21.7)

APG: M. Domask (3.2)

Reb/G: Q. Guerrier (7.6)

Coaches:

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (29th season)

Illinois Fighting Illini: Brad Underwood (7th season)