Miami-OH RedHawks vs Fresno State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/27/2025

Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, December 27, 2025

Venue:  Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ

Where to Watch:  The CW Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Miami-OH +6, Fresno -6; Over/Under:  41.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Miami-OH +4.5, Fresno -4.5; Over/Under:  42.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Miami-OH +6, Fresno -6; Over/Under:  42.5 points

Miami-OH RedHawks:  7-6 (6-2) (2nd place, MAC)

Fresno State Bulldogs:  8-4 (5-3) (5th place, MWC)

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Miami-OH RedHawks:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Western Michigan Broncos 23-13.

Fresno State Bulldogs:  won their last game on the road against the San Jose State Spartans 41-14.

Miami-Ohio is entering this game with a 7-6 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Western Michigan 23-13. Thomas Gotkowski was the starting QB and he completed 7/17 passes for 92 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jordan Brunson led the team in rushing yards with 59 and 1 TD. Kamryn Perry led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Eli Blakey led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Eli Blakey led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Fresno State is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against San Jose State 41-14. E.J. Warner was the starting QB and he completed 15/20 passes for 138 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Elijah Gilliam led the team in rushing yards with 92 and 2 TDs. Josiah Freeman led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Jayden Davis led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Simeon Harris came away with 2 interceptions while Ethan Tierney, Jayden Davis, and Al'zillion Hamilton each came away with 1 INT for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Miami-OH listed as a 6 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Miami-OH has looked good in their games this season with their 7-6 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the MAC. They are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this year. Meanwhile, Fresno State has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 5-3 conference record which had them right in the middle of the MWC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this season so this will be their first, playing in the Arizona Bowl. Fresno State had a good year in the MWC and ended the regular season with a 41-14 win over San Jose State, but they still weren't good enough to compete with the best in their own conference. Their offense looked great in that final game of the regular season, but that hasn't been the case all year and they haven't really put up that many points in most of their games this season. Miami-OH does have a good defense and hasn't been giving up many points all season so their defense is going to keep them in this game. Miami-OH had a great year in the MAC as they went to the MAC Championship, but they lost that game to Western Michigan 23-13 who was just the better team and showed they were the best team in the MAC all year. Miami-OH has had a lot of successful seasons under Martin though and they will be looking to finish the year strong in this bowl game. Matt Entz has turned around this Fresno State program in 1 year, but that up and down offense is going to be an issue in this game and that Miami-OH defense is going to give the RedHawks a chance to win here. The best way to place a bet here is on Miami-OH to cover the spread in this game. 

Miami-OH Fresno State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 27, 2025 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Fresno State 24 Miami-OH 20.

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Miami-OH RedHawks: 25-15 ATS in all lined games. 10-2 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 4-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 11-6 UNDER as an underdog. 6-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less.

Fresno State Bulldogs: 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 4-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 3-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 6-3 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game. 4-1 UNDER off a road win against a conference rival.

Miami-OH RedHawks:  A. Trick (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Hondru (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Thomas (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Myers (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Tracy (RB) Out - Knee.

Fresno State Bulldogs:  R. Luke (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Thunderbird (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Owusu (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Briggs (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. McHarg (OG) Out - Undisclosed. S. Scott III (DL) Out - Undisclosed. E. Dasmann (OG) Out - Undisclosed. A. Asiata (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

"Really proud of my guys: We took this thing maybe a little further than I thought we would at different points this year. At the beginning of the year, I definitely always expect to be in Detroit. I knew we had a changing of the guard; you have 28 seniors you're losing, and you don't have a lot of returners. But I have a lot of confidence in who we had.” - Chuck Martin after his team’s loss against WMU in the MAC Championship.

“I’m excited to be a Bulldog and can’t wait to get back and continue.” - Matt Entz on his team playing in the Arizona Bowl.

WR Weaver, Cole

WR Isom, Braylon

WR Perry, Kam

TE Shane, Brian

QB Gotkowski, Thomas

RB Brunson, Jordan

WR Avit, Ezekiel

WR Freeman, Josiah

WR Brown, Jordan

TE Anderson III, Richie

QB Conklin, Carson

RB Donelson, Bryson

Passing: Dequan Finn (1,451)

Rushing: Jordan Brunson (724)

Receiving: Kam Perry (966)

Touchdowns: D'Shawntae Jones (7)

Passing: E.J. Warner (1,811)

Rushing: Rayshon Luke (688)

Receiving: Josiah Freeman (499)

Touchdowns: Rayshon Luke (8)

Coaches:

Miami-OH RedHawks: Chuck Martin (12th season)

Fresno State Bulldogs: Matt Entz (1st season)