Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/18/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Saturday, Sep 17, 2022
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
Venue: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, MASN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Marlins -175, Nationals +150
FanDuel: Marlins -180, Nationals +152
BetMGM: Marlins -180, Nationals +152
Caesars: Marlins -178, Nationals +152

Season record
Marlins: 59-87
Nationals: 51-94

We're coming down to the wire in the MLB season. Playoff races are heating up, pennant races are still to be decided, and MVP cases are still to be made. Are you in the right headspace to finish strong entering the postseason? Look no further than what Al McMordie has done as of late, going 53-37 in his last 90 in MLB plays! You know you want that type of winning in your life. Make sure you check out Al's and our other champion handicappers to see who they have down the stretch this season.

Marlins - Nationals preview and analysis


The fun times for the Miami Marlins ended long ago, but they’re still someone who can build off how this season ends and get ready for next year. The Marlins conclude a three-game series against the Washington Nationals on Sunday, but will try to at least get one after dropping the opener on Friday in D.C.
 
Miami has lost six of eight coming into Saturday’s game and, in hindsight, blew a big opportunity with 11 hits on Friday but only mounting four runs. That’s the kind of run it’s been for the Marlins, who had playoff aspirations about 40 games ago, but have since turned back into a pumpkin.
 
"If you get beat, it's one thing," Miami manager Don Mattingly said. "But when you don't play solid baseball, when you're giving free bases and giving free outs, those are things you don't want to do. You are what you are and we are where we're at, but you still want to play solid baseball."
 
That sounds like the Marlins of old, not the ones that were taking the world by storm with their pitching and timely hitting earlier in the year. But that pitching will be on display Sunday when ace Sandy Alcantara takes the mound.
 
Alcantara was gaining some Cy Young buzz this year, and that might still be the case if he can win his last few starts. He’s 12-8 this year with an ERA below 2.50. If he was on any other team, it might be a more fun situation to monitor. But at the very least, the Marlins have someone to build the rotation around for a long time.
 
But the problem for the Marlins for a long time is trying to get some consistency as it pertains to the bats, this being no exception. Joey Wendle had three hits, JJ Bleday had two hits, and even Miguel Rojas in the seven spot had two hits. That should be more than enough for the Marlins to put together a performance to win some games. And there’s enough talent in this batting order to actually make it happen. Sure, injuries have played a factor, but anyone should be able to beat the Nationals.
 
The Marlins have actually been a solid team on the road this year at just 30-43. That tells you that maybe there’s a chance to build off this, but there hasn’t been any indication yet that they’ll get better next year. At the very least, coming in at 10 games below .500 on the road would be considered a success. But in terms of division opponents, the Marlins are just 28-38 this season against NL East opponents.
 
It doesn’t hurt Jazz Chisholm is one of those injuries out for the year, dealing with back injuries and now undergoing knee surgery. The star hitter has been one of the reasons why the Marlins have had a stinted renaissance.
 
"I thought I would've been back in like a month or a couple of weeks, honestly, probably two or three weeks," Chisholm said, speaking to reporters for the first time since June 28 on Wednesday. "I thought I was going to be back in time for the All-Star Game, until it just didn't go that way. I got the news I had a stress fracture, and that it won't heal properly, and just had to go with that."
 

Prediction

 
Going to roll with the Marlins in the sense they don’t need to be losing many games like this. Mattingly will want to have a strong end to the series and any positivity garnered will be a good thing. Marlins win 5-3

Betting trends


Marlins are 12-6 this season as a favorite this season.

Marlins are 4-11 in September.

Marlins are 17-12 this year when Alcantara starts.

Nationals are 13-38 as an underdog between +125 and +175 this season.

Projected lineup


Marlins:
Charles Leblanc (R) 2B
Joey Wendle (L) SS
Brian Anderson (R) RF
Nick Fortes (R) DH
JJ Bleday (L) CF
Jacob Stallings (R) C
Jordan Groshans (R) 3B
Jerar Encarnacion (R) LF
Lewin Diaz (L) 1B

Nationals:
Lane Thomas (R) RF
Alex Call (R) LF
Joey Meneses (R) 1B
Luke Voit (R) DH
Ildemaro Vargas (S) 3B
Luis Garcia (L) 2B
Riley Adams (R) C
Victor Robles (R) CF
CJ Abrams (L) SS

Statistical leaders


Marlins:
Batting average: Garrett Cooper -- .253
Home runs: Jazz Chisholm -- 14
RBI: Jazz Chisholm -- 45
Wins: Sandy Alcantara -- 12
ERA: Sandy Alcantara -- 2.43

Nationals:
Batting average: Lane Thomas -- .252
Home runs: Lane Thomas -- 16
RBI: Nelson Cruz -- 64
Wins: Josiah Gray -- 7
ERA: Josiah Gray -- 5.14

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Marlins - Washington Nationals preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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