Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/25/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 6:10 pm ET, Saturday September 25, 2021
Venue:  Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Where to Watch:  BSSUN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +190, Rays -235; Over/Under:  6.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +170, Rays -200; Over/Under:  7 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins NL, Rays -NL; Over/Under:  NL runs

Season Record

Miami Marlins:  64-88 (4th place, NL East)
Tampa Bay Rays:  94-59 (1st place, AL East)
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Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Miami Marlins:  4-6 last 10
Tampa Bay Rays:  5-5 last 10

Miami Marlins Analysis

The Marlins are coming into this game after losing their series finale against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. They are now on a 2 game losing streak and they have also lost 4 of their last 6 games. They had Thursday off as a rest day and will begin a three-game series against the Rays on Friday. This will be the 2nd game of this series on Saturday while the Friday game's result is still pending as that game has not been played yet. Edward Cabrera is getting the nod for the game on Friday while Sandy Alcantara will be the starting pitcher on the mound for this game on Saturday. He is 9-13 with a 3.05 ERA this season. His team has won 4 of the last 5 games that he has pitched in. In his last start, he allowed 2 runs, 1 of them being earned, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Sunday. He has seen the Rays lineup once this season all the way back in April in his first start of the year. There was a no-decision for him in that game as he allowed no runs against him but his team still went on to lose that game 1-0. Their offense has scored 14 runs in their last 3 games averaging over 4 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 21 runs against them in that same span allowing 7 runs per game.

Tampa Bay Rays Analysis

The Rays are coming into this game after winning their series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. They won that series with that win and have now won 2 of their last 3 games. They had Thursday off as a rest day and they will be playing the series opener against the Marlins on Friday with that result still pending. David Robertson will be the starter for Friday's game while Shane McClanahan will be throwing the first pitch for them in this game on Saturday. He is 9-6 with a 3.51 ERA this season. He has been credited with straight losses now and his team has lost the last 3 that he started in. In his last start, he allowed 1 ER, it being a HR, and 2 BB with 7 strikeouts on 2 hits through 5 innings of work against the Detroit Tigers last Sunday. He has not faced the Marlins lineup at all this season and since he is a rookie pitcher, this will be the first time he faces them in his entire career. The Rays offense has started to score some runs again at least. Their offense has scored 15 runs in their last 3 games averaging 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 9 runs against them in that same span allowing 3 runs per game.


Marlins vs Rays Prediction

The Marlins are completely out of playoff contention here and they cannot even play spoiler in this game as the Rays have already clinched a playoff spot. The Rays do still have something to play for here as they have clinched a Wild Card spot for sure but have not fully locked down the division yet which they are in the lead for in the AL East. They still have some unfinished business here and with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees winning games until the end here, they will have to keep winning until they lock it down. The best bet to make in this one is on the Rays on the money line or the run line as they will be looking to secure their spot as the division winners.
Marlins Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday September 25, 2021 (6:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 6 Marlins 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

Miami Marlins: 36-65 (-13.1 units) on the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher. 64-88 (-13.5 units) on the money line in all games.
Tampa Bay Rays: 62-33 (+9.6 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 94-59 (+22 units) on the money line in all games. 

Key Injuries

Miami Marlins:  P. Lopez (SP) Early Oct - Shoulder injury. J. Brigham (RP) Early Oct - Undisclosed injury. C. Poteet (SP) Early Oct - Knee injury.
Tampa Bay Rays:  W. Franco (SS) Prob Fri - Hamstring injury. N. Cruz (DH) Ques Fri - Illness. O. Drake (RP) out for season - Elbow injury.

Players to Watch

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar is one player to watch here. He leads his team in home runs and in RBI. They do not have much to play for here but he will keep fighting in every game so look for him to keep making hits to try and play some spoiler for some teams near the end of the season now.
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena is one player to watch in this one. He leads his team in hits and in stolen bases. They are still trying to clinch the division here so look for him to keep getting on base and try to get into scoring position for his team.

Notable Quotes

"Nick gets us two and Sandy gets us one and suddenly you need a runner to put the game on the line. It's nice to see the guys continue to go." - Don Mattingly after a close loss to the Nats.
"Pretty much almost went behind me. I thought it was a weak move, to be quite honest. It's over. It's didn't hurt by any means, so I don't care. Whatever. We move on. We got a series win, and I hope we play those guys, I really do." - Kevin Kiermaier on wanting to play the jays in the playoffs after getting hit by a pitch from Ryan Borucki.

Starting Lineups

Miami Marlins
M. Rojas SS
J. Chisholm Jr. 2B
B. De La Cruz CF
J. Sanchez RF
L. Brinson LF
L. Diaz 1B
A. Jackson C
E. Alvarez 3B
E. Hernandez P
Tampa Bay Rays
B. Lowe 2B
R. Arozarena LF
J. Choi 1B
Y. Diaz 3B
A. Meadows DH
M. Margot RF
K. Kiermaier CF
F. Mejia C
T. Walls SS

Statistical Leaders

Miami Marlins
Batting Average:  B. De La Cruz (.313)
Hits:  M. Rojas (127)
Home Runs:  J. Aguilar (22)
RBI:  J. Aguilar (93)
Stolen Bases:  J. Chisholm (22)
Wins:  S. Alcantara (9)
Saves:  D. Floro (12)
ERA:  S. Okert (2.01)
Tampa Bay Rays
Batting Average:  W. Franco (.285)
Hits:  Randy Arozarena (136)
Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (34)
RBI:  Austin Meadows (103)
Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (15)
Wins:  S. McClanahan (9)
Saves:  Andrew Kittredge (7)
ERA:  C. McHugh (1.34)
Miami Marlins: Don Mattingly (6th season)
Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (7th season)

Weather Forecast

89 degrees F mostly sunny, 63% humidity, 20% chance of rain, up to 4 mph wind speeds SE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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