Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview & Odds - August 9, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports San Diego

Season-to-date
Marlins: 47-64 (Last place, NL East)
Padres: 63-49 (3rd place, NL West)

Projected lineups


Marlins:
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Jorge Alfaro (R) LF
Lewis Brinson (R) CF
Brian Anderson (R) 3B
Joe Panik (L) 2B
Alex Jackson (R) C
Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF
Zach Thompson (R) P

Padres:
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) SS
Austin Nola (R) C
Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
Wil Myers (R) RF
Jake Marisnick (R) CF
Joe Musgrove (R) P

Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Padres -220, Marlins +180

Recent form (entering Sunday)
Marlins: 3-7 in last 10
Padres: Losers of four of last seven

Sean Murphy is 116-86 this season (+$12,000) after a 2-2 run on Saturday. Make sure to catch Sean’s daily MLB picks, as well as our other handicappers’ thoughts on our Best Bets site.

Marlins - Padres Preview


Good news if you’re a San Diego Padres fan. The return of Fernando Tatis Jr. could be on the horizon sooner than we thought.

But could he be back as an outfielder?

Tatis spent time taking fly balls in center field during a recent practice, which could solve the crowded San Diego infield when the NL MVP frontrunner returns, which he expects it to be some point this season.

But it could be days or weeks before Tatis Jr. returns to the fold. The Padres will need to continue their playoff push without their superstar, starting Monday with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins at Petco Park.

The Padres’ offense has been a roller coaster without Tatis Jr., their leader in home runs and RBI. Five of their last nine games has seen San Diego score four runs or less. The pitching hasn’t been any better. Yu Darvish has lost his last three starts since the All-Star break, and the rotation with the exception of Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell has been just as inconsistent.

Musgrove is expected to be the starting pitcher for San Diego. The right-hander has gone at least 6 IP in his past three starts, allowing only three combined runs. His 2.87 ERA would be loved by a lot of teams in need of starting pitching right now. He had 11 strikeouts on July 29 against Colorado.

But San Diego has held firm in their wild card pursuits, but not for long. The Cincinnati Reds are only two games back of the Padres for the second wild card spot in the National League. The Reds’ five-game winning streak may not be enough to catch the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central, but for the first time in a long while, the Padres have to look over their shoulder in the standings.

The Marlins probably wish they could be in either of those positions. Miami probably would be happy to be closer to the Atlanta Braves in the National League East, rather than be hanging with the Washington Nationals toward the bottom. Miami is coming off being swept at Colorado over the weekend; a sharp contrast from winning three of four against the New York Mets at loanDepot Park.

Trends


The numbers favor the Padres odds to win this game. As a favorite of -150 or more, the Padres are 36-24 this year with the over being a slight favorite (32-27). 

The Marlins haven’t been any better due to their lineup not standing up to par. Miami is 28-46 as an underdog this season, with the under going 41-30. The Marlins odds only improve if the score stays low. Given San Diego’s inconsistencies, that doesn’t seem too farfetched.

Marlins - Padres Prediction


This should be a straight money line play. Don’t trust the Padres throughout this series. The Marlins have shown weird resilience, but not enough to turn it around. We like the Marlins in this one, and come Thursday, the Padres could be in a bit of a pickle. Marlins win, under cashes.

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Miami Marlins - San Diego Padres prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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