Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres: Prediction, Preview & Odds -- Aug. 11, 2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports San Diego

Season-to-date (entering Tuesday)
Marlins: 47-66 (Last place, NL East)
Padres: 65-49 (3rd place, NL West)

Projected lineup


Marlins:
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Isan Diaz (L) 2B
Lewis Brinson (R) LF
Brian Anderson (R) 3B
Alex Jackson (R) C
Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF
Magneuris Sierra (L) CF
Sandy Alcantara (R) P

Padres:
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) SS
Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
Wil Myers (R) RF
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Victor Caratini (S) C
Ryan Weathers (L) P

Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Padres -180, Marlins +155

Recent form (entering Tuesday)
Marlins: Lost four straight
Padres: Won three straight

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Marlins - Padres Preview


The main objective for the San Diego Padres now is to play well enough until reinforcements arrive.

“Reinforcements” in San Diego language means Fernando Tatis Jr.

Until the Padres’ superstar makes his return to the lineup, it’s about staying afloat in regards to playoff positioning. They’ll look to do that as they wrap up their three-game series against the Miami Marlins at Petco Park on Wednesday.

Tatis Jr. has been fielding fly balls in practice in center field. A bit change of pace, but with San Diego’s infield crowding up -- the addition of Adam Frazier, the great play at shortstop by Jake Cronenworth -- outfield might be best for Tatis Jr. heading into the playoffs.

San Diego enters Tuesday on a three-game winning streak spearheaded by the Padres’ star pitchers. Yu Darvish had 12 strikeouts Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, followed by 13 strikeouts the next night for Blake Snell.

Joe Musgrove started the Miami series with eight strikeouts in six innings for an 8-3 win. Opponents have not been able to figure out San Diego’s strong rotation, and if that keeps up deep into the late stages of the season, that will prove fruitful.

“We’ve got too many good pitchers on staff for us to be performing the way we have,” Musgrove said, per MLB.com. “Hopefully, we got all of those out of the way and we can rattle off a good stretch of consistent, deep starts.”

San Diego’s offense still comes from big bats down the middle of the order. Manny Machado went 2-for-4 on Monday with an RBI, and Eric Hosmer went 2-for-3 with a solo home run. The Padres still trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by three games for the top wild card spot in the National League, and trail the San Francisco Giants by seven games for the outright division lead.

The Padres will have grand opportunities to make up ground there; a four-game series at Arizona lies ahead starting Thursday, followed by a three-game set at the Colorado Rockies next Monday.

The Marlins are not going to make the playoffs and build of last year’s success, but there is some cause for optimism. First baseman Jesus Aguilar is closing in on a 100-RBI season while belting 20 homers. Lewis Brinson has assumed clean-up hitting duties and has done well with five home runs and batting .268 in 46 games.

Starter Sandy Alcantara is expected to take the mound for the Marlins. The 25-year-old Alcantara boasts a 6-10 record with a 3.70 ERA. If he gets some run support, that’ll help this game. It being on the road, with San Diego’s pitching as good as it is right now, it might be hard if the game turns over to the bullpen.

Trends


The Marlins’ struggles have been well documented to determine whether they're hot or cold on the books. This season, against much better teams, they’ve been freezing. The Marlins are 10-18 (-0.2 units) when an underdog of +150 or more. The over is 18-9 in that stretch, which tells us the over has likely come from the opposition.

The Padres are 38-24 when a favorite of -150 or more (-8.9 units) with the over going 33-28. This matchup, especially if Ryan Weathers is in fact the starting pitcher for San Diego, could be a toss-up. He’s been struggling, which could make the moneyline pick enticing on the Miami side.

Prediction


The Padres are going to need every win they can get until Tatis Jr. returns, but on this night, we feel the Marlins can get the job done. Pending on Tuesday’s game, the number might be too high to not consider. We like the Marlins in this one. Marlins win, over cashes.

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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