by Rod Pearson
Monday, Aug 21, 2023
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Tuesday, August 21, 2023
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: SDPA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Marlins +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Marlins +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Marlins +100, Padres -120; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Miami Marlins: 64-61 (3rd place, NL East)
San Diego Padres: 59-66 (4th place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Miami Marlins: 5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Marlins are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 64-61 record overall and have a road record of 27-34. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .719 OPS. Johnny Cueto is their starting pitcher on Monday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-8 with a 4.13 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 3 BB with 3 Ks on 8 hits through 3.2 IP against the Houston Astros.
The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 59-66 record overall and have a home record of 33-32. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Michael Wacha is their starting pitcher on Monday while Rich Hill is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 7-13 with a 5.18 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 BB with 3 strikeouts on 2 hits through 5 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Marlins vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins haven't been great in their games lately but they have still been playing well over the last few weeks as they try to hold down their Wild Card spot in the NL. They will have a much easier time in this series too since they are playing the Padres who are under .500 this season and have had a struggling offense all year. The Padres are also going with Hill in this game and he hasn't been good in his starts lately since he has been giving up a ton of runs and the Marlins will definitely take advantage of the scoring opportunities they get here. The Marlins have Luzardo starting here and he hasn't been great lately either as he did give up 5 runs in his last start but he has been going through a rough patch lately when he has actually had a really good season. He will be looking to bounce back with a much better performance here and will pitch a lot better against this struggling Padres offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game.
Marlins Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, August 21, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 4 Padres 1.
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MLB Betting Trends
Miami Marlins: 20-11 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse. 19-13 (+7.4 units) on the moneyline after 4 or more consecutive road games. 14-7 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more. 19-7 UNDER against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres: 60-66 (-29.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 51-47 (-20.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 22-13 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more. 24-15 UNDER against left-handed starters.
Key Injuries
Miami Marlins: H. Brazoban (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. T. Rogers (SP) Late Aug - Bicep. A. Nardi (SP) Late Aug - Tricep. J. Chargois (RP) Out indefinitely - Ribs. T. Nance (RP) Late Aug - Shoulder. M. Barnes (RP) out for season - Hip. J. Davis (CF) Mid Sept - Knee. A. Bender (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) out for season - Elbow.
San Diego Padres: G. Cooper (1B) Ques Mon - Elbow. R. Knehr (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Choi (1B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. D. Carlton (RP) Late Aug - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. T. Hill (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. A. Jacob (SP) Mid Sept - Elbow. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm.
Notable Quotes
“The one thing they have in that clubhouse is that they don’t ever stop or quit. They fight. ... There’s a lot of games left and we’re still in the mix.” - Skip Schumaker after his team’s loss against the LA Dodgers in their game on Saturday.
“We put ourselves in this position and continue to. So just keep fighting till you get it right.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in their game on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Miami Marlins
Jorge Soler (R) RF
Luis Arraez (L) 2B
Josh Bell (S) DH
Jake Burger (R) 3B
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) CF
Avisail Garcia (R) LF
Nick Fortes (R) C
Jon Berti (R) SS
San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Juan Soto (L) DH
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Ben Gamel (L) LF
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Miami Marlins
Batting Average: Xavier Edwards (.381)
Hits: Luis Arraez (166)
Home Runs: Jorge Soler (32)
RBI: Jorge Soler (67)
Stolen Bases: Jazz Chisholm (17)
Wins: Jesus Luzardo (8)
Saves: A.J. Puk (15)
ERA: Robert Garcia (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Campusano (.306)
Hits: Xander Bogaerts (120)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (24)
RBI: Juan Soto (75)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (27)
Wins: Joe Musgrove (10)
Saves: Josh Hader (27)
ERA: Alek Jacob (0.00)
Managers:
Miami Marlins: Skip Schumaker (1st season)
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
