Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/03/2023

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +140, Phillies -166; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +145, Phillies -165; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +135, Phillies -160; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Miami Marlins:  84-77 (3rd place, NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies:  90-72 (2nd place, NL East)

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Miami Marlins:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  7-3 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss but won their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with an 84-77 record overall and had a road record of 38-42. This is the series opener of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Phillies on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .722 OPS. Ryan Weathers was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 10 Ks on 4 hits through 7.1 IP against the New York Mets.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win but lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 49-32. This is the 1st game of a best 2 out of 3 game series with the Marlins on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card Series and they had Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. Matt Strahm was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Zack Wheeler is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4 innings played against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This will be the 1st game of a best of 3 series to see who advances to the NLDS. The Phillies finished the regular season with the better record so they are going to have home advantage on this series. The Phillies had the better record but they have also been the hotter team coming into the playoffs winning 7 of their last 10 games and their offense has been putting up runs. The Marlins have also been good coming into the playoffs but they haven't been as hot as the Phillies and their offense hasn't been putting up a ton of runs either. The Phillies had a much better offense than the Marlins during the regular season while the Marlins had better pitching but the Phillies will have Wheeler on the mound here and he has been really good. Wheeler will be able to keep this Marlins offense at bay while the Phillies get to this Marlins pitching staff at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Marlins Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, October 3, 2023 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Phillies 3 Marlins 1.

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Miami Marlins: 84-77 (+6.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-11 (+7.7 units) on the moneyline after 5 or more consecutive road games. 16-8 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more. 14-7 UNDER in October games. 

Philadelphia Phillies: 25-27 (-9.7 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 23-29 (-12.1 units) on the moneyline after 3 or more consecutive road games. 7-9 (-6.5 units) on the moneyline after scoring 9 runs or more. 21-12 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more. 18-9 UNDER when playing with a day off.

Miami Marlins:  L. Arraez (1B) Out indefinitely - Ankle. S. Alcantara (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Davis (CF) Early Oct - Knee. T. Rogers (SP) Early Oct - Bicep. E. Perez (SP) Out indefinitely - Hip. T. Nance (RP) out for season - Oblique. A. Garcia (RF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. M. Barnes (RP) out for season - Hip. A. Bender (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  E. Uelmen (RP) out for season - Elbow. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.

“There are going to be some tough decisions because a lot of guys have earned positions but it was good outing for him to be part of the conversation.” - Skip Schumaker after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their last game of the regular season on Sunday.

“They won the season series, so they match up well with us. We have a lot of prep to do. They can beat you in a lot of different ways.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s win against the Mets in their final game of the season on Sunday.

Jon Berti (R) LF

Jorge Soler (R) DH

Jake Burger (R) 3B

Josh Bell (S) 1B

Bryan De La Cruz (R) RF

Garrett Hampson (R) SS

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) CF

Nick Fortes (R) C

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Brandon Marsh (L) LF

Edmundo Sosa (R) SS

Jake Cave (L) 1B

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Garrett Stubbs (L) C

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.354)

Hits:  Luis Arraez (203)

Home Runs:  Jorge Soler (36)

RBI:  Bryan De La Cruz (78)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (22)

Wins:  Jesus Luzardo (10)

Saves:  A.J. Puk (15)

ERA:  Robert Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Weston Wilson (.313)

Hits:  Nick Castellanos (170)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (47)

RBI:  Nick Castellanos (106)

Stolen Bases:  Bryson Stott (31)

Wins:  Taijuan Walker (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Orion Kerkering (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Skip Schumaker (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)