Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/17/2026

Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Friday, July 17, 2026

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +129, Brewers -156; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +130, Brewers -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +130, Brewers -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

Miami Marlins:  52-45 (3rd place, NL East)

Milwaukee Brewers:  59-37 (1st place, NL Central)

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Miami Marlins:  6-4 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  5-5 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Cleveland Guardians 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-45 record overall and have a road record of 21-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Friday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .741 OPS. Tyler Phillips was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-5 with a 3.99 ERA this season. His team won 7 of their last 8 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 8 SO on 5 hits through 7 IP against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Brewers are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 59-37 record overall and have a home record of 29-18. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Robert Gasser was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Logan Henderson is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have looked great in their games this season with their 59-37 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL Central with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 29-18 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 52-45 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 21-25 road record this year. The Marlins have looked good lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they did go into the All-Star break getting swept at home by the Guardians. The Brewers also went into the break getting swept in their last series and they are now 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have also been one of the best teams in the league all season and they are going to be able to take advantage of this pitching matchup. Henderson is starting for the Brewers in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 4 games in a row now with him starting and even though he gave up 3 earned runs in his last start, that hasn't been a common theme for him. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 10-5 with a 3.99 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately, but he has still been giving up runs in his starts. The team has won 7 of their last 8 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Marlins got hot right before the break, but now they have cooled off a bit and the Brewers have been the steadier team all season with better pitching too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game. 

Marlins Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 17, 2026 (7:40 pm ET start time) is Brewers 5 Marlins 2.

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Miami Marlins: 52-45 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 15-9 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. 26-22 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 10-6 UNDER against NL Central opponents. 4-1 UNDER after 6 consecutive games versus interleague opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers: 7-8 (-5 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 10-12 (-7.8 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. 8-8 (-3.1 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive losses. 4-0 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start.

Miami Marlins:  W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. M. Petersen (RP) Day To Day - Hamstring. J. King (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Milwaukee Brewers:  R. Zastryzny (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Woodruff (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. K. Harrison (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. D. Hamilton (3B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Lockridge (LF) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Kuhnel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. Q. Priester (SP) Sixty Day IL - Wrist. B. Fitzpatrick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Rodriguez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Hall (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Pectoral. A. Zerpa (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm.

“A couple years ago, Otto wasn't a name that many people around the sport were talking about. He's found a home here, and he's taken advantage of his opportunity. He exemplifies so much about what we're about. He's incredibly accountable, he works hard. He's getting better every year.” - Clayton McCullough on Otto Lopez this season. 

“I don’t think we were out of gas. Our guys played hard. We shouldn’t be any more tired than any other team. We’ve all played 94 games or so. We didn’t pitch well, and that’s why we lost. You’re not going to give up 10 runs in an inning and win.” - Pat Murphy after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Sunday. 

Otto Lopez (D) SS

Heriberto Hernández (D) LF

Liam Hicks (Z) 1B

Xavier Edwards (A) 2B

Javier Sanoja (D) RF

Leo Jiménez (D) 3B

Esteury Ruiz (D) CF

Rece Hinds (D) DH

Brian Navarreto (D) C

Christian Yelich (Z) DH

Jackson Chourio (D) LF

Brice Turang (Z) 2B

Jake Bauers (Z) 1B

Gary Sánchez (D) C

Garrett Mitchell (Z) CF

Sal Frelick (Z) RF

Joey Ortiz (D) SS

Braden Shewmake (Z) 3B

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.334)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (127)

Home Runs:  Liam Hicks (13)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (58)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (20)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (1.69)

Batting Average:  Tyler Black (.333)

Hits:  William Contreras (97)

Home Runs:  Jake Bauers (18)

RBI:  Jake Bauers (60)

Stolen Bases:  David Hamilton (18)

Wins:  Aaron Ashby (12)

Saves:  Trevor Megill (14)

ERA:  Easton McGee (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (3rd season)