Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, August 21st, 2022

Venue: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: MLB.tv, MLBN (JIP)

 

DraftKings: Moneyline: Marlins +150, Dodgers -175; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Marlins: 52-67, 4th place NL East

Dodgers: 82-36, 1st place NL West

The Dodgers won the 1st game of this series with the Marlins 2-1.  It was a hard fought close game… but the Dodgers prevailed on the moneyline.  They did not beat the spread.  The prediction for Game 2 is already published and that covers Saturday night. That prediction declares that the Dodgers will win on the moneyline and ATS.  This prediction is for Game 3 of the series set to play Sunday afternoon.  We have to check the pitching matchup, the numbers, and then make the prediction below.

A National League matchup between a bad team in the East and the best team in the West and in all of baseball.  The Miami Marlins share a division (NL East) with the New York Mets who spent most of the summer looking like the class of the National League… The Marlins are 24 games behind the Mets.  The Marlins have no shot… the Marlins have no postseason to look forward to.  The Los Angeles Dodgers not only caught up to the Mets, but pulled away.  They are now 5 games ahead of the Mets… for a 5 game league as the best team in all, of baseball (the Houston Astros have cheated their way to 76 wins to be tied with the Mets for wins).  The Dodgers are starting to feel like an unstoppable force.  The Dodgers offense is the best in the league and their pitching is best in the league. The Dodgers have few flaws.  The Dodger batting 9th in their line-up was league MVP just 3 seasons ago… before he skunked his life by hotdogging a high-five.  Few MLB teams have a recent MVP batting 9th as he works his way back to form (in all of MLB history).  Let’s check the pitching and make the obvious bet.

The Miami Marlins have won only 3 of their last 10 games… Doing that is how you sink to 24 games back of your division leader.  The pitching is average to slightly better than average in Miami.. But the offense is on a serious pause.  They went 2-1 against the San Diego Padres, 0-4 against the Atlanta Braves (a SWEEP), and 1-2 against the Philadelphia Phillies.  No one is waiting for a Miami breakout… They are heavily bogged down with the mechanics of trying to build a team for the future… and trying to keep their players out of the nightclubs.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 8 of their last 10 games.  They recently were on a 13 game win streak that was also an amazing 13 game win streak ATS… Think about that!  The Dodgers won 13 games in a row Against The Spread.  The Dodgers are starting to feel like this season’s team of destiny especially considering the Yankees recent 11 of 13 game losing skid… especially considering that the Dodgers (already the best pitching rotation in baseball) will be getting as many as 5 quality pitchers returning from the injury list before the end of the season.  The starting rotation will get better than the best… the bullpen will get better than the best… just in time for the postseason.  There will be a lot of postseason Dodgers dogs sold… even though that may be the worst food on the planet.  They went 2-1 against the Milwaukee Brewers, 2-1 against the Kansas City Royals, 2-0 against the Minnesota twins, and 2-0 against the San Diego Padres during that stretch.  You ask Gonsolin, Urias, and Anderson how going 2-0 with backups on the way feels during a 10 day stretch.

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The Marlins are 27th in scoring with 3.73 runs per game, 24th in batting average with .234, 26th in OBO with .299.

The Dodgers are 1st in scoring with 5.45 runs per game, 3rd in batting average with .263, and 1st in OBP with .338

The Marlins pitchers are 12th in ERA with 3.83, 15th in WHIP with 1.25, and the fielders are 9th in errors with 55 on the season so far.

The Dodgers pitchers are 1st in ERA with 2.89, 1st in WHIP with 1.07 (that is a team average!), and the fielders are 8th in errors with 54 on the season so far.

Our prediction for Sunday, August 21st is… Dodgers 7 - Marlins 2

It is pretty obvious that after a shaky start against the Marlins in game 1… The Dodgers hitting advantage keeps getting better while the Marlins hitting deficit keeps getting worse.  That is what happens when a great team plays a bad team (the great team at home).  The bet is for the Dodgers ATS.  A Day game in Dodger stadium on a Sunday will come with some amazing hitting. The Marlins are putting their ACE on the mound… but he will get no relief from the relief pitchers whatsoever.

  

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The Dodgers are 2-1 (o.6 units) against Miami the last 3 seasons in LA.

2 of 3 games have gone UNDER.

Dodgers: C Austin Barnes (personal) Out ** 3B E. Rios (hammy) Out ** CF K Pillar (shoulder) Out ** 

Marlins: 1B G Cooper (head) Quest ** RF A Garcia (hammy) Out ** SS J Chisolm Jr (back) Out ** RF J Soler (back) Out 

Marlins: RHP Sandy Alcantara, 11-5, 1.92 ERA, 152 strikeouts in 173 innings pitched. 0.94 WHIP.  Sandy is the Marlins best guy.  A reliable 26 year old with real numbers and enough experience for those numbers to be true.

Dodgers: RHP Ryan Pepiot, 1-0, 4.26 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched. 1.50 WHIP.  Ryan is a 24 year old being given plenty of room to shine.  The Dodgers’ front office wants Ryan to show how special everyone knows he already is… so he can be included with Walker Buehler and prospects in a potential Ohtani trade.  He has a bullpen that will bail him out of any missteps.

Marlins: SS Joey Wende, 3B Jon Berti, RF Brian Anderson, LF JJ Bleday, DH Nick Fortes, 2B Charles Leblanc, 1B Lewin Diaz, C Jacob Stallings, CF Peyton Burdick

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, 3B Max Muncy, DH Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, LF Joey Gallo, CF Cody Bellinger

Marlins: Don “yeah that Don” Mattingly

Dodgers: Dave “Is this heaven?” Roberts

Partly Cloudy, 84*, Humidity 63%, Wind 8 mph… but really for a day game in August these are great conditions.