Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/09/2025

by Rod Pearson

Tuesday, Jul 08, 2025
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch:  FDSFL, FDSOH


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +120, Reds -140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +120, Reds -140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +120, Reds -140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

Miami Marlins:  41-48 (3rd place, NL East)
Cincinnati Reds:  46-45 (4th place, NL Central)

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Recent Form
Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10
Cincinnati Reds:  4-6 last 10



Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Preview and Analysis


The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 41-48 record overall and have a road record of 21-21. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Reds on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Marlins won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 17th in the MLB with a .704 OPS. Eury Pérez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 4-8 with a 7.01 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-45 record overall and have a home record of 24-20. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Marlins on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Reds lost the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Nick Martinez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 7-1 with a 2.15 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 walks with 2 strikeouts on 9 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies.


Marlins vs Reds Prediction

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 46-45 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They have looked good in their own ballpark this year with their 24-20 home record. Meanwhile, the Marlins haven't looked great in their games this season with their 41-48 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They haven't been a great road team either with their 21-21 road record this season. The Marlins have been the red hot team lately as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but the Reds have the much better pitching matchup here and can take advantage of that. Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins in this one and he has looked terrible this season. He is 4-8 with a 7.01 ERA and has been giving up a ton of runs all year. His team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 5 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him lately. The Reds are going with Abbott in this one and he has been their ace this season. He is 7-1 with a 2.15 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year at all. He did give up 4 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he will be looking to bounce back after that rare bad start. The team has also had a ton of success with him starting, winning 4 of their last 5 games with him on the mound. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Marlins Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 9, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 7 Marlins 1.
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MLB Betting Trends


Miami Marlins: 131-174 (+19.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 91-114 (+18.8 units) on the moneyline in road games. 134-162 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 37-18 UNDER on the road against left-handed starters.

Cincinnati Reds: 100-105 (-14.8 units) on the moneyline in home games. 76-68 (-15.2 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 79-91 (-16.8 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse on the season. 24-8 UNDER at home vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game.

Key Injuries


Miami Marlins:  M. Meyer (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. R. Weathers (SP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. J. Tinoco (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. R. Brantly (C) Sixty Day IL - Lat. G. Conine (LF) Sixty Day IL - Arm. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. B. Garrett (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“We've been talking about responding a lot as a group, and that is, things happen during a game that aren't always the greatest, and you just have to go move past it. [Ramírez] did, and he hung in there. I thought, too, he did a really great job with Janson today, helping navigate him through those six innings, and then certainly, the big home run late to pad the lead some. [It] was a big hit in this game to make it [a] four-run game. It does a lot with the bullpen and how you can look at those last few innings. So [a] big hit, and proud of him for bouncing back from that early couple of passed balls, and then what he did with Janson tonight was terrific.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Reds in their game on Monday.


“The MRI came back [and] we’re really pleased with it. He’s still feeling it at times. I think there’s not a lot of confidence there yet. I think it feels fatigued. We want to do the right thing. Sometimes, it’s very difficult. That’s why we got the MRI. You ask somebody to go out there, let it loose and go 100 mph, you don’t want them worrying about something.” - Terry Francona on the injury to Hunter Greene after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Monday.


Starting Lineups


Miami Marlins
Xavier Edwards (S) 2B
Jesús Sánchez (L) RF
Agustín Ramírez (R) C
Liam Hicks (L) DH
Kyle Stowers (L) LF
Eric Wagaman (R) 1B
Connor Norby (R) 3B
Derek Hill (R) CF
Javier Sanoja (R) SS

Cincinnati Reds
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Matt McLain (R) 2B
Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
Austin Hays (R) LF
Gavin Lux (L) DH
Spencer Steer (R) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Will Benson (L) RF
Noelvi Marte (R) 3B

Statistical Leaders


Miami Marlins
Batting Average:  Rob Brantly (.429)
Hits:  Xavier Edwards (85)
Home Runs:  Kyle Stowers (16)
RBI:  Kyle Stowers (46)
Stolen Bases:  Xavier Edwards (15)
Wins:  Ronny Henriquez (5)
Saves:  Calvin Faucher (8)
ERA:  Freddy Tarnok (0.00)

Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)
Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (97)
Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)
RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (60)
Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (22)
Wins:  Brady Singer (7)
Saves:  Emilio Pagán (19)
ERA:  Andrew Abbott (2.15)

Managers:
Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (1st season)
Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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