Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/29/2023

Game Time: 6:10 pm ET, Thursday, June 29, 2023

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +105, Red Sox -125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +105, Red Sox -125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins +105, Red Sox -125; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Miami Marlins:  46-34 (2nd place, NL East)

Boston Red Sox:  40-40 (5th place, AL East)

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Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

The Marlins are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 4-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-34 record overall and have a road record of 21-18. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .722 OPS. Braxton Garrett is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 9 Ks on 2 hits through 7 IP against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Red Sox are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 40-40 record overall and have a home record of 21-19. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .755 OPS. Kaleb Ort is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Brayan Bello is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6.2 innings played against the Chicago White Sox.

The current betting odds have the Red Sox listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Red Sox haven't been great in their games lately and they have been struggling all season just to stay above .500 with an overall record right at the .500 mark and they are also in last place in their division. The Marlins have been playing great lately as they are in 2nd place of their division and their pitching has been really good in these games, but now they are facing one of the best offenses in the league and they will not be able to keep the Red Sox off the board for long in this ballpark. The Marlins already held the Red Sox to 1 run in the 1st game of this series but that will not happen again as the Red Sox have had a really good offense at home this season and Luzardo hasn't been great for the Marlins lately. Luzardo had a great start to the season but fell off after the 1st month, he is coming off a good start in his last one but has still been giving up quite a few runs in his starts lately and he won't be as good on the road here either. The Red Sox have Bello on the mound here and not only has he been a lot better in his starts lately, but he also hasn't been giving up many runs in his home starts this year. The Marlins can pitch really well but the Red Sox have a really strong offense and if they get out to a big lead in this game, the Marlins just don't have the kind of offense like the Red Sox do to pull off a comeback when Bello has been pitching so well at home lately. The Red Sox will also be looking to bounce back in this series after a string of bad performances and they will use their offense to give them a spark in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Red Sox to win this game.

Marlins Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 29, 2023 (6:10 pm ET start time) is Red Sox 7 Marlins 2.

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Miami Marlins: 46-34 (+14.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-7 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 18-9 OVER as an underdog of +100 to +150. JESUS LUZARDO is 7-3 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.

Boston Red Sox: 12-11 (-5 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 11-16 (-7.7 units) on the moneyline in an inter-league game. 12-6 OVER at home with a money line of -100 to -150. 24-15 OVER in home games.

Miami Marlins:  T. Nance (RP) Early July - Shoulder. J. Cueto (SP) Early July - Bicep. T. Rogers (SP) Mid July - Bicep. E. Cabrera (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. A. Garcia (RF) Out indefinitely - Back. M. Barnes (RP) Out indefinitely - Hip. A. Bender (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  M. Yoshida (LF) Ques Wed - Forearm. J. Paxton (SP) Prob Fri - Knee. P. Reyes (3B) Out indefinitely - Abdominal. J. Schreiber (RP) Early July - Back. R. McGuire (C) Mid July - Oblique. Y. Chang (3B) Out indefinitely - Wrist. J. Rodriguez (RP) Early July - Shoulder. C. Kluber (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Houck (SP) Out indefinitely - Face. W. Mills (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Sale (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. T. Story (2B) Late July - Elbow. R. Bleier (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. Z. Kelly (RP) Early Sept - Elbow. A. Mondesi (SS) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“It's just fun to go out there and get a W. Get out there, pass the baton, play with my guys, see them get hype every time I do something, me getting hype every time they did something. ... I didn't really look at anything other than going out there and having fun with the boys.” - Jazz Chisholm Jr. after their win against the Red Sox in their game on Tuesday. 

“We're not great, we're not bad. We are where we're at. Obviously, we've got a long way to go.” - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Tuesday.

Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Jorge Soler (R) DH

Bryan De La Cruz (R) LF

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) CF

Garrett Cooper (R) 1B

Jean Segura (R) 3B

Jesus Sanchez (L) RF

Jacob Stallings (R) C

Joey Wendle (L) SS

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Justin Turner (R) DH

Alex Verdugo (L) RF

Rafael Devers (L) 3B

Adam Duvall (R) CF

Triston Casas (L) 1B

Enrique Hernandez (R) 2B

David Hamilton (L) SS

Connor Wong (R) C

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.399)

Hits:  Luis Arraez (113)

Home Runs:  Jorge Soler (21)

RBI:  Jorge Soler (46)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (14)

Wins:  Jesus Luzardo (6)

Saves:  A.J. Puk (11)

ERA:  Eury Perez (1.34)

Batting Average:  Alex Verdugo (.307)

Hits:  Alex Verdugo (88)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (18)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (60)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (14)

Wins:  Chris Sale (5)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (16)

ERA:  Chris Murphy (0.00)

Managers:

Miami Marlins: Skip Schumaker (1st season)

Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (5th season, 3rd consecutive)