Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds and Preview - 07/27/2021

by James Q

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Venue:  Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Where to Watch:  Marlins - Bally Sports Florida;  Orioles - MASN 2

Season-to-Date Record:
Florida Marlins:  43-57, ( last place, National League East)
Baltimore Orioles:  34-64 (last place, American League East)

Odds at USA Sportsbooks:
DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins-130; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins -135; Over/Under 9.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Marlins -130; Over/Under 9.5 runs

Key Injuries:

Miami:  Elieser Hernandez (quad) Out; Jose Devers (Shoulder) Out; Garret Cooper (Elbow) Out; Jazz Chisolm (Shoulder) Out
Baltimore:  Keegan Akin (Covid-19) Out; Anthony Santander (Covid-19) Out; Travis Lakins (Elbow) Out

Recent Lineups:

Miami Marlins:
Panik (2B)
Sierra (LF)
Curtiss  (P)
Marrero (SS)
Anderson (3B)
Duvall (RF)
Marte (CF)
Leon (C)
Aguilar (1B)

Baltimore Orioles:
Leyba (2B)
Valaika (SS)
Mountcastle (1B)
Mullins (CF)
McKenna (LF)
Stewart (RF)
Mancini (DH)
Wynns (C)

Statistical Leaders:

Miami Marlins:
Batting Average:  Rojas (.270)
Home Runs:  Duvall (22)
RBI:  Aguilar (71)
Stolen Bases: Marte (21)
Wins:  Rogers (7)
ERA:  Rogers (2.37)

Baltimore Orioles:
Batting Average:  Mullins (.317)
Home Runs:  Mancini (18)
RBI:  Mancini (59)
Stolen Bases:  Mullins (16)
Wins:  Harvey (5)


Miami Marlins:  Mattingly (4th season)
Baltimore Orioles:  Brandon Hyde

Recent Form:

The Miami Marlins go into Camden Yards with a 19-34 record in road games this year, and having just gone .500 in a 4 game home stand against San Diego.  It looks like tough going for Miami who has a losing record after a day off (4-9), a losing record on Tuesdays (4-11), and a .500 record when they are the road favorite (which is rare) (3-3), heck they have a 3 year losing road record (64-102).  They'll be starting Sandy Alcantara who is .500 on the road (5-5), The man is just below .500 on the road over the last 3 seasons (15-16), he's even 1-4 when playing on a Tuesday! (a useless stat, but still) So, why are they slightly favored?  Why are they gonna take the field holding their heads up high? The opponent.

The Baltimore Orioles are struggling this season.  They have a record of 34-64, 16-30 at home.  They also have a losing record at home (16-30), and haven't fared well on a Tuesday (6-10).  Languishing 27 games out of first place with a .347 win percentage tends to land a team squarely in the underdog spot even if they are playing the Marlins.  There are some bright spots however.  The Orioles are 6-4 in their last ten games, they are on a 3 game win streak, and they are scheduled to start Watkins on the mound.  Watkins is a bright spot, he has a 1.65 ERA.... of course that is only over 16 innings pitched.  Having appeared in only a few games so far the product of Western Oregon is 2-0.  

The Marlins have played 5 unders and 3 overs (with 2 push) over their last 10 games.  And the Marlins' Over/Under record is 42-53-3 this season.

The Orioles have played 5 of their last 10 games under the total, and their Over/Under record this season is 50-45.

Series History:

The two teams last played each other on April 21st.  There were only 4000 in attendance because of Covid protocols. Miami won that game 3-0.  In fact over the last ten times Miami has faced Baltimore, Miami has won 8... dating all the way back to 2015.  The all time record between these clubs is Miami 27 - Baltimore 9 

Statistical Comparison:

The Marlins rank 23rd in pitching in Major League Baseball with a team average 3.53 ERA and 27th in hitting with a team Batting Average of .234-- They aren't exactly a juggernaut.  With Rojas leading the team in Batting average and Duvall leading in home runs, outside of these guys,  they don't come by offense too easily or too often.  Still the pitching matchup seems to favor Miami on experience and history alone.

Similarly, the Orioles struggle.  They are dead last in Major League pitching (30th) with a shocking team ERA of 5.44.  At the plate Baltimore is ranked 23rd hitting a soft .237 with an OBP of .302.  Trey Mancini hit one of the three homers in the Baltimore's come from behind, walk-off win against the Nationals on Sunday.  Other teams will call about Mancini as well as Cedric Mullins before the trade deadline.

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Marlins vs Orioles Game Preview:

The Marlins will be entrusting the mound to right hander Sandy Alcantara.  He is 5-9 on the season with 120 innings pitched and is coming off losing his last two outings. So, it'll have to be a team effort for Miami, they'll need the bullpen to give quality innings early and throughout.  The offense showed up for the Marlins on Sunday at LoanDepot Park beating a real good Padres team 9-3 with homers from Deven Marrero, Brian Anderson, and Lewis Brinson.  If Duvall can hit his way out of his recent funk (batting .222 over the last ten) the batters should come alive against inexperienced Spenser Watkins.

The Baltimore Orioles will start Spenser Watkins.  He has won two games and appeared in two others for a total of 16 innings.  A WHIP of 1.16.  He has given up 11 hits in his career so far.  If he runs into any trouble things could get away from The O's quickly. The problem with  Baltimore is that they are dead last in Major league pitching.  When they go to the bullpen they usually aren't getting much help... and they will start a guy we haven't yet seen in a jam.  They will need run support.  Cedric Mullins is hitting .317, while Trey Mancini Is leading them in Runs (56), Runs batted in (59), and Home Runs (18).  While there are no league leading stats among any of them, these two guys will need to lead the way if Baltimore has a chance at giving Spenser his 3rd win.

Notable quotes:

Marlins' Lewis Brinson:  "We came to play" (after Sunday's 9-3 win over Padres)

Orioles' Ryan McKenna (after Sunday's win over Nationals ):  "Overall, today was just a good day."

Marlins/Orioles Prediction:  

Our MLB pick is Marlins 6 Orioles 3

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James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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