Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 5/11/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Arizona

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Marlins -120, Diamondbacks +100
BetMGM: Marlins -120, Diamondbacks +100
Caesars: Marlins -120, Diamondbacks +100

Season record
Marlins: 13-17
Diamondbacks: 17-14

We're fresh into this baseball season and of course it's AAA Sports jumping out to an 34-19-0 run in Major League Baseball over the course of the last 30 days. An incredible start to the season. We've seen some exciting games and some awesome moments, but what will happen as we keep rolling through the month of May? Catch AAA's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Marlins - Diamondbacks preview and analysis


You want to cheer for the underdogs. And right now, the top underdog in Major League Baseball might be on the side of the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have not just been able to throw their hat into the ring with some impressive wins early in the season, but they've been able to do that consistently.

And now the Diamondbacks can complete the sweep of the Miami Marlins at home with a win at Chase Field on Wednesday.

Arizona is coming off a 9-3 win on Tuesday, highlighted by four runs in the fourth inning. More importantly, the strength of this Arizona club -- the starting pitching -- was on full display with Madison Bumgarner going 6.1 innings and striking out five.

"I actually felt really good early on in the game and they put some really good swings on the ball," said Bumgarner, whose ERA rose a few points to 1.78. "I was able to adjust and keep moving the ball around, get better as we went."

The Diamondbacks have needed to find ways to keep the consistency rolling. Because while it's been great so far, the hitting still isn't there just yet. If the D-Backs can turn this into a run that'll keep them in play until July or August, they might need to address the offense at some point. Right now, there might not need to be such a rush to do that.

"This is a we over me thing — that's how I've looked at it every single day," D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo said after becoming the winningest manager in franchise history. "These players mean the world to me. I can't do anything without them."

That's wild to think that a franchise that has won a world championship has now just reached the winningest manager in team history.

But the fact is the Marlins are right about there, too. They've improved, especially in the rotation, but Jazz Chisholm has become their top hitter right now. But they haven't hit that consistency that the Diamondbacks have reached, and this series has shown it so far. Miami has been outscored 13-6 in the first two matchups and let things get away from them in the second game.

Jorge Soler hit a home run early in the game, but that was all that could be done. And as a result, the Marlins have lost a couple in a row and need a win or two to keep pace with what they've done.

Prediction


Unfortunately for them, I don't think that's happening. The Diamondbacks are clicking right now, and we can at least say they are in a better position than Miami right now. I like the way Arizona is rolling right now, and the way Merrill Kelly is pitching, that's going to be a tough test. Diamondbacks win 6-2

Betting trends


Marlins are 2-9 against NL West opponents this season.

Diamondbacks are 8-6 against NL East opponents this season.

Projected lineup


Marlins:
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B
Jesus Aguilar (R) 1B
Jorge Soler (R) LF
Jesus Sanchez (L) CF
Avisail Garcia (R) RF
Garrett Cooper (R) DH
Brian Anderson (R) 3B
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Jacob Stallings (R) C
SP - Sandy Alcantara

Diamondbacks:
Daulton Varsho (L) CF
Jordan Luplow (R) RF
David Peralta (L) LF
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Cooper Hummel (S) DH
Sergio Alcantara (S) 3B
Carson Kelly (R) C
Nick Ahmed (R) SS
Geraldo Perdomo (S) 2B
SP - Merrill Kelly

Statistical leaders


Marlins:
Batting average: Jazz Chisholm -- .310
Hits: Jazz Chisholm -- 27
Home runs: Jazz Chisholm -- 5
RBI: Jazz Chisholm -- 21
Wins: Pablo Lopez -- 4
Saves: Anthony Bender -- 6
ERA: Pablo Lopez -- 1.00

Diamondbacks:
Batting average: Pavin Smith -- .250
Hits: Daulton Varsho -- 23
Home runs: Two tied -- 6
RBI: Daulton Varsho -- 13
Wins: Merrill Kelly -- 3
Saves: Mark Melancon -- 5
ERA: Merrill Kelly -- 1.22

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Arizona Diamondbacks - Miami Marlins preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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