by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 27, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 1, 2025
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Miami-FL -9.5, SMU +9.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Miami-FL -10, SMU +10; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Miami-FL -10, SMU +10; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Miami Hurricanes: 6-1 (2-1) (7th place, ACC)
SMU Mustangs: 5-3 (1-3) (5th place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Miami Hurricanes: won their last game at home against the Stanford Cardinal 42-7.
SMU Mustangs: lost their last game on the road against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 13-12.
Miami Hurricanes vs SMU Mustangs Preview and Analysis
Miami-Florida is entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Stanford 42-7. Carson Beck was the starting QB and he completed 21/28 passes for 189 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Mark Fletcher Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 106 and 3 TDs. Tony Johnson led the receivers with 69 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Keionte Scott led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Xavier Lucas and Armondo Blount each led the defense in sacks with 1. Xavier Lucas and Wesley Bissainthe each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
SMU is entering this game with a 5-3 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Wake Forest 13-12. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 21/39 passes for 171 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Chris Johnson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 29. RJ Maryland led the receivers with 51 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Isaiah Nwokobia led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Terry Webb led the defense in sacks with 2. Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Miami vs SMU Prediction
The current betting odds have Miami listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Miami has looked great in their games this season with their 6-1 record overall and their 2-1 conference record which has them higher in the ACC. They took their first loss of the season the other week against Louisville, but Louisville isn't a bad team so that loss wasn't terrible for Miami. They did bounce back in their last one too, coming off a 42-7 win over Stanford, and they are going to be highly focused on winning every game left in their season. Meanwhile, SMU hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 5-3 record overall. Their 3-1 conference record has them higher in the ACC at the moment, but they do have some bad non-conference losses this year and now they are off a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest in their last one too. SMU is still alive for the ACC Championship with their 1 conference loss, but this isn't the same team as last year. They don't have the same talent that they had last season and the defense has been a big issue for them too. Miami has been ranked like one of the best teams in the nation all season and for good reason, they will be trying to show why they deserve to be back in the top 5. The best way to place a bet here is on Miami to cover the spread in this game.
Miami SMU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 1, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Miami 35 SMU 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Miami Hurricanes: 11-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 8-2 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 6-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 20-12 OVER in all lined games. 9-5 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 5-1 OVER off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.
SMU Mustangs: 5-9 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 4-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 3-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 6-3 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. 7-4 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
Key Injuries
Miami Hurricanes: J. Carver (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Nickel (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Campbell (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Scroggins (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Reiman (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Robinson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Lowe (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Newton (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Washington Jr. (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Mesidor (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.
SMU Mustangs: I. Robertson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Ferm (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Gentry (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Polley Jr. (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Locke (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Larson (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Pereira (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Douglass (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Woods (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Spencer (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Medlock (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jefferson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Washington (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Robertson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Davis-Robinson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Mark Fletcher showed why he's such a great player and why he's so important to this football team.” - Mario Cristobal after his team’s win against Stanford in their last game.
“They beat us. They earned it.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s loss against Wake Forest in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Miami Hurricanes
WR Marion, Keelan
WR Daniels, CJ
WR Toney, Malachi
TE Bauman, Alex
QB Beck, Carson
RB Fletcher Jr., Mark
SMU Mustangs
WR Brinson, Romello
WR Hudson, Jordan
WR Maryland, RJ
TE Hibner, Matthew
QB Jennings, Kevin
RB Harden, TJ
Statistical Leaders
Miami Hurricanes
Passing: Carson Beck (1,673)
Rushing: Mark Fletcher Jr. (552)
Receiving: Malachi Toney (562)
Touchdowns: Mark Fletcher Jr. (9)
SMU Mustangs
Passing: Kevin Jennings (2,119)
Rushing: T.J. Harden (456)
Receiving: Romello Brinson (515)
Touchdowns: T.J. Harden (5)
Coaches:
Miami Hurricanes: Mario Cristobal (4th season)
SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
