Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Prediction, Preview and Odds - 03/28/2023

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Mar 27, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Tuesday, March 28, 2023
Venue:  Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Where to Watch:  TNT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +3, Raptors -3; Over/Under:  219 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +2.5, Raptors -2.5; Over/Under:  219 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +3, Raptors -3; Over/Under:  219 points

Season Record

Miami Heat:  40-35 (1st place, Southeast Division)
Toronto Raptors:  37-38 (5th place, Atlantic Division)

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Recent Form
Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10
Toronto Raptors:  5-5 last 10


Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Preview and Analysis


The Heat are coming into this game with a 40-35 record overall and they are 15-21 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. Tyler Herro and Max Strus each led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jimmy Butler was next on the team with 18 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Caleb Martin led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 47.5% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.9 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 27-45-3 this season and their O/U record is 36-39.



The Raptors are coming into this game with a 37-38 record overall and they are 25-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards in their last game. OG Anunoby led the team in points in that game with 29 while Fred VanVleet was next on the team with 28 points. Fred VanVleet led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Jakob Poeltl led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 45.9% from the field, 35.5% from 3-point range, and 81.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.9 PPG against them. The Raptors have an ATS record of 37-36-2 this season and their O/U record is 42-33.


Heat vs Raptors Prediction

The current betting odds have the Raptors listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Raptors haven't been great at all this season but they are somehow still fighting for a play-in spot with their losing 37-38 record overall and they are going to be clamping down now in these final games of the season. They have still been a really good home team this year with their 25-14 home record and they have some momentum from 2 wins in a row now. The Heat have been having a better season than the Raptors with their winning 40-35 record overall but they really haven't been that much better this year and have also been terrible in their road games with a 15-21 road record. They just lost at home to the struggling Nets too and they have been a very up and down team all year with one of the worst records in the NBA when it comes to covering the spread. The Raptors have a very good home advantage and they will be coming to play this game with a lot of extra motivation. The best way to place a bet here is on the Raptors to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Raptors Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, March 28, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Raptors 114 Heat 107.
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NBA Betting Trends


Miami Heat: 13-22 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5. 13-21 ATS after one or more consecutive overs. 13-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5.
Toronto Raptors: 13-6 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5. 28-19 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 11-6 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less.

Key Injuries


Miami Heat:  N. Jovic (SF) Ques Tues - Back. C. Zeller (PF) Out indefinitely - Nose.
Toronto Raptors:  J. Wieskamp (SG) Ques Tues - Hamstring. G. Trent Jr. (SG) Ques Tues - Elbow. W. Barton (SG) Ques Tues - Ankle. D. Banton (SF) Out indefinitely - Thumb. O. Porter Jr. (SF) out for season - Toe.


Notable Quotes


“We have not been defending at a world-class level, the way we're capable of ... and the second half just became an avalanche.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Nets in their game on Saturday. 


“O.G. obviously had it going tonight.” - Nick Nurse on OG Anunoby after his team’s win against the Wizards in their game on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


Miami Heat
PG Gabe Vincent
SG Tyler Herro
SF Jimmy Butler 
PF Kevin Love
C Bam Adebayo

Toronto Raptors
PG Fred VanVleet
SG O.G. Anunoby
SF Scottie Barnes
PF Pascal Siakam
C Jakob Poeltl

Statistical Leaders


Miami Heat
PPG: J. Butler (22.8)
APG: J. Butler (5.1)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.3)

Toronto Raptors
PPG: P. Siakam (24.2)
APG: F. VanVleet (7)
Reb/G: J. Poeltl (9.2)

Coaches:
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)
Toronto Raptors: Nick Nurse (5th season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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