by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: KENS, Bally Sports Sun
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Spurs -3; O/U 216.5
BetMGM: Spurs -3.5; O/U 216.5
Caesars: Spurs -3; O/U 217
Season record
Heat: 22-13 (4th place, Eastern Conference)
Spurs: 14-19 (10th place, Western Conference)
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Heat - Spurs preview and analysis
Recent form
Heat: won four straight; won 119-112 vs. Wizards on Tuesday
Spurs: won three of four; lost 110-104 vs. Jazz on Monday
The Miami Heat suited up eight players on Tuesday and still won. That’s two victories despite being unbelievably shorthanded this week. Erik Spoelstra remains pushing all the right buttons.
But the Heat are in for a tough one on Wednesday, playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road against the San Antonio Spurs.
Miami is coming off a 7-point win against the Washington Wizards -- which we nearly called the other day -- in which half of Miami’s roster has had to deal with COVID or injuries of the like.
Tyler Herro played the role of his last name with a game-high 32 points off the bench on 9 of 19 shooting, and Duncan Robinson added 26 points on eight 3-pointers for the Heat’s fourth straight win. Jimmy Butler had 25 points and a double-take 15 assists to go with eight rebounds.
“Just continuing to get better,” Herro said.
Butler rolled his right ankle with 1:03 remaining in the game, which could further shorten their rotation if he’s not available for Wednesday. The Heat are already down Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Dewayne Dedmon, just to name a few.
The Heat just got Butler back after missing time with a tailbone injury, on top of entering health and safety protocol.
Miami led by as many as 28 points against the Wizards before faltering at the end. The Heat opened Tuesday as 6-point favorites, but the line moved at the 11th hour with the news that Bradley Beal would not be ready to return from health and safety, and Rui Hachimura’s season debut was put on hold because of COVID.
The Spurs, meanwhile, have seemed to found their identity at the right time. Despite a hard-fought 6-point loss to the Utah Jazz on Monday in the second night of a back-to-back at home, San Antonio covered for the fourth straight game as 7-point dogs.
More importantly, the Spurs are 4-2 in their last six with wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers; there’s even a road win at Utah sprinkled in there despite Monday’s fallback.
The Spurs kept the game close even without starting point guard Dejounte Murray available due to health-and-safety protocol. Derrick White led the way with 21 points, while Doug McDermott had 17 for San Antonio.
"Overall, it was a good game for improvement, understanding how we have to play, and what this is all about," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "I am actually pleased."
San Antonio’s offense was humming at a crazy pace over the previous 10 games before Monday, scoring 110 points in each game, the longest streak from the team since March 1984.
Prediction
It almost feels illegal to pick the Heat despite everything they’ve been through, but this is too good of an opportunity to not pick the Spurs at home. San Antonio is only laying 3.5, a reasonable number despite the Heat being 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Spurs by 8
Betting trends
The Heat are 57-36 ATS since 1992 on the road following not covering at home but winning straight up.
The Heat are 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Spurs are 5-21 ATS in home games after winning two of three over the past three seasons.
The over is 14-4 when the Heat play a back-to-back in the past two seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: KZ Okpala
C: Omer Yurtseven
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: KZ Okpala
C: Omer Yurtseven
Spurs:
PG: Tre Jones
SG: Derrick White
SF: Doug McDermott
PF: Keldon Johnson
C: Jakob Poeltl
SF: Doug McDermott
PF: Keldon Johnson
C: Jakob Poeltl
Key injuries
Heat: Kyle Lowry (COVID, out), Bam Adebayo (thumb, out), Dewayne Dedmon (knee, out), Markieff Morris (neck, out), P.J. Tucker (leg, out), Max Strus (COVID, out)
Spurs: Dejounte Murray (COVID, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
