by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Jan 01, 2022
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Bally Sports Sun
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Heat -2.5
BetMGM: Heat -3.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
Heat: 23-13 (4th place, East)
Kings: 15-22 (11th place, West)
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Heat - Kings preview and analysis
Recent form
Heat: won five straight; won 120-110 at Rockets on Friday
Kings: lost 112-96 vs. Mavericks on Friday
Yes, the Miami Heat are a good team. They're exceeding expectations right now with this five-game winning streak.
And now they got Kyle Lowry back from COVID protocol and are slowly getting important pieces back in the fold. Miami will try to push the winning streak to six on Sunday when they visit the Sacramento Kings.
Lowry returned after his stint in health and safety protocols to score 12 points in 37 minutes. But it was Jimmy Butler pouring in a season-high 37 points while going 12 of 21 shooting and making all 11 of his free throws. All five starters scored in double figures, including Tyler Herro with 16.
Miami snapped a three-game ATS losing streak with all but one game being decided by a point or less. Given the situation Miami is dealing with, staying away from the Heat in terms of the books was probably your best play this week. Even the opening line for this matchup against a weird Kings team is on the low side.
And given how Miami's offense has fared even with the lack of production as a team, the Heat still found ways to score at a high clip. They've reached at least 115 points in four of the last five games, and even put on a defensive clinic while shorthanded against the Orlando Magic on Dec. 26.
Knowing that, the Kings are going to have a problem on their hands trying to stop a well-rounded Miami team. Sacramento lost for the first time in three games on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks in a two-game series at home; the Kings won the first matchup on Wednesday on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Chimezie Metu.
Dallas got its revenge two nights later while holding the Kings to just 41.8% from the floor. Tyrese Haliburton led the way with 17 points and 10 assists, but got no help from anyone else. De'Aaron Fox shot 3 of 14 in 31 minutes, Metu regressed to 4 of 13 and Harrison Barnes had only 11 points in 30 minutes. Sacramento's defense also took a hit after Dallas shot nearly 52 percent.
The Kings dropped to 2-4 ATS in the last six while being underdogs all but one time. Sacramento has also lost by double digits against the spread in three of those losses; they only got one point against the Mavericks on Friday and lost by 15 ATS.
Yes, the Miami Heat are a good team. They're exceeding expectations right now with this five-game winning streak.
And now they got Kyle Lowry back from COVID protocol and are slowly getting important pieces back in the fold. Miami will try to push the winning streak to six on Sunday when they visit the Sacramento Kings.
Lowry returned after his stint in health and safety protocols to score 12 points in 37 minutes. But it was Jimmy Butler pouring in a season-high 37 points while going 12 of 21 shooting and making all 11 of his free throws. All five starters scored in double figures, including Tyler Herro with 16.
Miami snapped a three-game ATS losing streak with all but one game being decided by a point or less. Given the situation Miami is dealing with, staying away from the Heat in terms of the books was probably your best play this week. Even the opening line for this matchup against a weird Kings team is on the low side.
And given how Miami's offense has fared even with the lack of production as a team, the Heat still found ways to score at a high clip. They've reached at least 115 points in four of the last five games, and even put on a defensive clinic while shorthanded against the Orlando Magic on Dec. 26.
Knowing that, the Kings are going to have a problem on their hands trying to stop a well-rounded Miami team. Sacramento lost for the first time in three games on Friday against the Dallas Mavericks in a two-game series at home; the Kings won the first matchup on Wednesday on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Chimezie Metu.
Dallas got its revenge two nights later while holding the Kings to just 41.8% from the floor. Tyrese Haliburton led the way with 17 points and 10 assists, but got no help from anyone else. De'Aaron Fox shot 3 of 14 in 31 minutes, Metu regressed to 4 of 13 and Harrison Barnes had only 11 points in 30 minutes. Sacramento's defense also took a hit after Dallas shot nearly 52 percent.
The Kings dropped to 2-4 ATS in the last six while being underdogs all but one time. Sacramento has also lost by double digits against the spread in three of those losses; they only got one point against the Mavericks on Friday and lost by 15 ATS.
Prediction
This should be an easy win for the Heat. The Kings are too inconsistent on both ends and the star power doesn't match to what Miami brings. Fox can't go 3 of 14 again and expect Sacramento to hang around, especially if Butler or Lowry is guarding him. Miami can cruise to this one. Heat by 15
Betting trends
The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a straight-up win.
The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS win.
The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven against teams over a .600 winning percentage.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Omer Yurtseven
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Omer Yurtseven
Kings:
PG: De'Aaron Fox
SG: Tyrese Haliburton
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Marvin Bagley III
C: Alex Len
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Marvin Bagley III
C: Alex Len
Key injuries
Heat: Bam Adebayo (thumb, out), Duncan Robinson (COVID, out), P.J. Tucker (COVID, out), Max Strus (COVID, out), Markieff Morris (neck, out), Dewayne Dedmon (knee, out)
Kings: Richaun Holmes (COVID, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
