Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, May 12th, 2022 

Venue:   Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  76ers: -2; O/U 212.5

Fanduel:  76ers: -2.5; O/U 212

BetMGM: 76ers: -2.5; O/U 212.5

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference

76ers: 51-31, 4th place Eastern Conference

An Eastern Conference Second Round Playoff Matchup Game 6!   This series has lived up to the billing!  A lot has been made of the 76ers going into the tank in Game 5… but we are still looking at a series where the home team has won every game on their home floor.  That is all we are seeing.  The Series shifts back to Philly.  The job of each team is to GET ONE GAME ON THE OTHER FLOOR!   If Philly wins they get a game 7 in Miami.  If Miami wins they get to prepare for the next round.  It’s very simple… GET ONE.  Both teams will need urgency and defense. Both teams need to show up.  Both teams need to rely on their stars to GET IT DONE…. Ahhh.  There's the rub.  The Miami Heat only have the one star SF Jimmy Butler… The 76ers have SG James Harden and C Joel Embiid… only James Harden has had wildly mixed results in the losses and Joel Embiid missed two games… and is playing through actual real PAIN.  The formula for a big win for either team is a big game out of one of those three guys. 

The Miami Heat were the best (by record) Eastern Conference NBA team this season. In ten playoff games they have won 7!  They went 6-4 ATS during that span.  In the last game which was a big 120-85 win… the Heat had 7 guys score in double figures with SF Jimmy Butler leading the way with 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists.  Jimmy also plays amazing defense.  The Heat shooters also finally showed up with Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oldadipo, and Tyler Herro all having ok to good games… Once again SG/SF Duncan Robinson was nowhere to be found!  Duncan is working under a 5 year 90 million dollar contract.  They can’t play him because his defense is tragic… If you bet on anything today, bet on Duncan Robinson being the centerpiece in a multiplayer trade in the off season… He will be in OKC, Houston, or Detroit next season.  If not… it’s because those guys don’t want him.  The team shot 54% from the field and 39% from 3-point range.  74% form the line didn’t hurt either.

The Philadelphia 76ers were a team we were waiting on for a long time this season.  They had a great Center and a growing PG in Tyrese Maxey… but they still had Ben Simmons on the roster… and that was a major problem.  The trade deadline brought SG and former MVP James Harden… the path was set.  People often forget that when watching the 76ers that this batch of players has not played that long together.  The 76ers have won 5 of their last ten games… all in the playoffs.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  In the last game the 76ers lost as C Joel Embiid got only 17 points and 5 rebounds in 33 minutes.  Embiid was still feeling the sting of losing the MVP award… the loss can be chalked up entirely to the fact that Embiid at only 17 points was also his team’s high scorer.  James Harden had 14 points, PG Tyrese Maxey had 9 points?!!  It was a bad game all around and the Sixers pulled the emotional rip cord early and everybody quit on Doc Rivers.  They pushed it forward to their home court.  If we get a rested and re-energized Embiid, Harden, and Maxey… the Sixers will blow the doors off of Game 6… If not?… The Heat will walk into the Conference Finals (psst against the Celtics).

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The Heat are 60-32 on the season, but 52-39-1 ATS.  They have logged 51 Overs and 41 Unders.  They are 25-20 in road games.

The 76ers are 57-36 on the season, but 43-48-2 ATS.  They have notched 42 Overs, 48 Unders, and 3 Push.  They are 28-18 in home games.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while allowing 105.6 ppg from opponents.

The Sixers are 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg, 29th in rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/To ratio with 1.9. On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Thursday, May 12th is….. Philly 118 - Heat 100

Philly will defend home court.  Harden, Maxey, and especially Embiid will simply have better games than last time… also try to remember that Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are NBA nobodies… they may have big games at home… but they get tight in PHILLY.  Bet on the Sixers to win and on the Over.

Miami is 17-6 ATS as an underdog this season.

Miami is 18-6 ATS after a combined score of 205 or less.

Philly is 17-7 ATS after scoring 95 points or less the last 3 seasons.

Philly is 7-1 ATS after scoring 90 points or less the last 3 seasons.

Philly is 63-48 ATS against Miami since 1996.

Philly is 5-3 ATS against Miami at Philly the last 3 seasons.

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) Out ** SG Tyler Herro (ankle) Prob

Sixers: No injuries to report

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gabe Vincent, PG Max Strus

Philly: SF Tobais Harris, PF Danny Green, C Joel Embiid, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden

Heat: Erik “look at my rings… I started in the video room!” Spoelstra

Sixers: Doc “I have one ring… I started as a bad ass PG!” Rivers