Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, May 8th, 2022 

Venue:   Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  76ers -2; O/U 207.5

Fanduel:  76ers - 2; O/U 207.5

BetMGM: 

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 2-1 series

76ers: 51-31, 4th place Eastern Conference; 1-2 series

An NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Series, Round 2, Game 4.  This playoff series is atypical.  Sure the #1 team is usually supposed to beat the #4 team in the East… and head right into the conference Finals against the winner of 2 vs 3.  That is what is supposed to happen… and in the first two games it is exactly what it looked like.  There was a wrinkle though.  The best player in the series, Philly Center Joel Embiid, was out with an injury.. So while the #1 team was easily winning… they weren't exactly getting the real competition that #4 is capable of.  It was lopsided and awkward… and led to two easy wins ATS.  (I like that).  Game 3 was different.  The Rumor mill said that C Joel Embiid was going to push doctors to clear him in time to play.  I immediately predicted a Philly win ATS… why not?  It would be the first game at home for Philly so even if Embiid could not play… maybe the rest of the team would get enough of an emotional lift to beat the spread?... Then it happened.  Just before game time Joel Embiid was cleared to play… the Philly team that took the floor for Game 3 looked and behaved entirely different as they spanked the Heat for an easy win 99-79.  

The Miami Heat have won 7 of their last ten games including two regular season games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  They had a similar first 3 games against Atlanta in round 1 of the playoffs.  The Heat won those first two games easily and then lost Game 3 when the series shifted to Atlanta.  Then the Heat simply won the next two games for a simple gentleman’s sweep 4-1.  Will that happen again?  Do the Heat have a player good enough to stand up to C Joel Embiid and his new and intimidating face mask?!  In the loss Philly got 33 points from SF Jimmy Butler and 14 points from SG Tyler Herro…. And practically nothing from everyone else.  C Bam Adebayo and F PJ Tucker had their hands full with Joel Embiid and were left with no energy or time for offense.  Undersized Guard Max Strus was 3-11 form 3-point range… all those misses dug a big hole. The Heat finished the game with just 23% from 3-point range (that’s 7 of 30).  Heat players seemed to crumble under the pressure of the raucous Philly faithful cheering and booing.

The Philadelphia 76ers have won 6 of their last 10 games, including 1 regular season game.  They went 6-4 ATS during that span.  The 76ers needed 6 games to take down the Toronto Raptors in the first round and in the closing minutes of the final winning game 6… C Joel Embiid caught an elbow/shoulder to the head and was left concussed with a small orbital fracture.  The season has been so rough on the 76ers… They had to wait for SG Ben Simmons to get traded to the Brooklyn Nets *everyone thought that would end Ben’s tantrum, but it didn’t)... then they had to mix in former MVP SG James Harden… James plays great, but not quite at the level of a few seasons ago so the Sixers immediately got a bunch of criticism for having a good player instead of no player in the starting lineup… Then Embiid misses the first two games against the Heat and the team looks lost without him.  Truth is… They are lost without Embiid.  Embiid is a top 5 player in the league.  His presence makes everyone else’s job much easier… and when it is easier… everyone can excel!  In Game 3 C Joel Embiid had 18 points, 11 rbs, 1 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl… not his best game but it opened up the floor for PG Tyrese Maxey to get 21 points, F Danny Green 21 points and James Harden to have 17 points, 8 rbs, 6 asts. Philly was riding high.   Let’s check the numbers to see if we bet on them in Game 4.

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Miami is 58-30 on the season, but 50-37-1 ATS.  They have logged 49 Overs and 39 Unders.  They are 25-18 in road games.

Philadelphia is 55-34 on the season, but 41-46-2 ATS.  They have notched 40 Overs, 46 Unders, and 3 Push.  They are 26-18 in home games.

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding their opponents to 105.6 ppg.

Philadelphia is 18th in scoring with 109.9 ppg, 28th in rebounds with 42.3 per game, and 8th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 8th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, May 8th is….. 76ers 108 - Heat 95

The Sixers will keep up the good feeling at home.  They are on a pure roll.  Last game’s offensive ineptitude will not be repeated by the Heat… but they won’t be able to step up enough.  

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Miami is 17-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

Miami is 33 Over, 17 Under when revenging a straight-up loss vs an opponent as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Philly is 5 Over and 20 Under in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.

Philly is 62-47 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

The Miami Heat have listed 7 players as Questionable including PG Kyle Lowry, SG Tyler Herro, SF PJ Tucker, PG Max Strus, SG Gabe Vincent…. All of them will be dressed to play.  Everyone is dinged up at the moment and this many players listed as Questionable is gamesmanship to try and confuse Doc Rivers on who should be prepared for.  (Doc doesn’t care)

The Philadelphia 76ers have Center Joel Embiid listed as Questionable.  He will of course play.  His minutes will depend on pain and performance… but he will play.

Heat: SF P.J. Tucker, PF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Philly: PF Danny Green, SF Tobias Harris, C Joel Embiid, PG Tyrese Maxey, SG James Harden

Heat: Erik Spoelstra

76ers: Doc Rivers