Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview, Prediction, Picks & Odds -- 11/15/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Where to watch: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Oklahoma

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Heat -9
BetMGM: Heat -9.5
Caesars: NL

Season record
Heat: 8-5
Thunder: 5-7

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Heat - Thunder preview and analysis


Recent form
Heat: won 111-105 at Jazz on Saturday
Thunder: lost 120-96 vs. Nets on Sunday

The Oklahoma City Thunder came crashing down, as did their four-game winning streak on Sunday.

And it was because a familiar foe came in and dropped bombs on them.

But the Thunder will have no time to rest over the fact that Kevin Durant reminded them of what used to be when they host the Miami Heat on the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday in OKC.

Durant scored 33 points against his former team, as did former Thunder star James Harden adding 16 points and 13 assists for the Nets as they improved to 10-4. Patty Mills also erupted with nine 3-pointers off the bench.

The Thunder, meanwhile, had their four-game winning streak end and fell to 5-7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued his early All-Star campaign with 23 points, while Lu Dort added 20.

“This team’s been so good at competing and responding, and we just couldn’t get the fire lit tonight,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said.

The Thunder are one of the worst scoring teams in the league and they’re going to have trouble finding the scoring touch beyond Gilgeous-Alexander. First-round pick Josh Giddey does everything else from an all-around standpoint, but still shot 2-of-10 from the floor. Ty Jerome had 11 points in 16 minutes off the bench, but Oklahoma City overall shot 40 percent and hit 14 of 45 from 3-point range.

Oklahoma City only had 11 free-throw attempts but made 10.

Miami is coming into this game off an impressive 111-105 win over the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City that ended a three-game losing streak. Tyler Herro continued his strong start to the season with a team-high 27 points, while Duncan Robinson and Kyle Lowry pitched in with 22 and 21 points respectively.

Heat star Jimmy Butler did not play due to injury and is listed as day-to-day. With this stuff, you can’t be sure if he plays against a non-contender, but the fact they got the win in Utah is impressive in of itself.

"We were physically and mentally ready to go into this game," Lowry said. "We lost three games on this road trip — two of them we had an opportunity to really win. We just got to continue to build and today was a good building block for us."

The Heat, now with Lowry in the fold, have the capability of being one of the top defensive teams in the league. That’s not what a group like OKC wants to see.

Prediction


Whether Butler is in the lineup or not, this shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the Heat. There are too many mismatches, especially in the frontcourt, for Miami to exploit. Look for Bam Adebayo to have a huge game on the glass in a double-digit victory. Heat by 16

Betting trends


The Heat are 10-4 ATS the past three years following five or more overs.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS this season when allowing 105 points or less.

The Thunder are 4-1 ATS at home this season.

Projected starting lineup


Heat:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF:
Jimmy Butler
PF:
P.J. Tucker
C:
Bam Adebayo

Thunder:
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Luguentz Dort
SF:
Josh Giddey
PF:
Darius Bazley
C:
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

Key injuries


Heat: SF Jimmy Butler (ankle, questionable), PF Bam Adebayo (knee, probable)

Thunder: None

Statistical leaders


Heat:
Points: Jimmy Butler -- 23.6
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo -- 11.2
Assists: Kyle Lowry -- 7.0

Thunder:
Points: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- 22.5
Rebounds: Darius Bazley -- 6.9
Assists: Josh Giddey -- 6.1

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Heat - Oklahoma City Thunder prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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