Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/10/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Venue:  Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +4, Knicks -4; Over/Under:  209.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +4, Knicks -4; Over/Under:  209.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +3.5, Knicks -3.5; Over/Under:  209.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

New York Knicks:  47-35 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  8-2 last 10

New York Knicks:  5-5 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with both wins coming against the New York Knicks in their last 2 games. In game 4 of this series, Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 27 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 23 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 47.1% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 72.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 39-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 48-45.

The Knicks finished the regular season with a 47-35 record overall and they were 23-18 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Miami Heat in their last 2 games. In game 4 of this series, Jalen Brunson led the team in points in that game with 32 while RJ Barrett was next on the team with 24 points. Jalen Brunson led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Julius Randle led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 48.7% from the field, 32.1% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.1 PPG against them. The Knicks have an ATS record of 48-39-4 this season and their O/U record is 45-44-2.

The current betting odds have the Knicks listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the 5th seeded Knicks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. The Heat are entering this game with a 3-1 series lead after sweeping their 2 home games in this series and the Knicks are now on the brink of elimination on their own home court here. The Knicks haven't looked good in this series at all as they have been outplayed in every game of this series, even the 1 game they won as they were trailing for 3 quarters in that game. The Heat already knocked out the number 1 seed in the East who was also the highest seed in the entire NBA and they have been really hot in the playoffs as they have been rolling through their opponents led by Jimmy Butler. As bad as the Knicks have been, they have still been playing well defensively in their games and they are going to have to lean on that here on their home court as they try to take a game back in this series. The Knicks are going to throw everything they have at the Heat in this game as they try to extend the series in a must win game on their home court. The best way to place a bet here is on the Knicks to cover the spread in this game and make the series lead 3-2 for the Heat.

Heat Knicks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 10, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Knicks 110 Heat 102.

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Miami Heat: 12-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 30-19 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5. 7-1 OVER after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games.

New York Knicks: 6-0 ATS after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games. 13-7 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses. 21-12 OVER as a home favorite. 18-8 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

New York Knicks:  I. Quickley (SG) Ques Wed - Ankle. T. Keels (SG) Out Indefinitely - Illness. I. Roby (SF) Out Indefinitely - Ankle. J. Sims (C) out for season - Shoulder. D. Washington Jr. (PG) Out indefinitely - Hip.

“It was great that we were able to hold home court. But we know we have a task in New York.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Knicks in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series. 

“You've got to win four to win a series. So, all we're thinking about is win the next game. Go quarter by quarter. Win the first quarter, win the second quarter, win the third, win the fourth. And then the next day we'll think about the next day.” - Tom Thibodeau after his team’s loss against the Heat in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jalen Brunson

SG Quentin Grimes

SF RJ Barrett

PF Julius Randle

C Mitchell Robinson

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: J. Randle (25.1)

APG: J. Brunson (6.2)

Reb/G: J. Randle (10)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

New York Knicks: Tom Thibodeau (3rd season)