Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/30/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 30, 2023

Venue:  Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +4.5, Knicks -4.5; Over/Under:  206.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +4, Knicks -4; Over/Under:  206.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +4.5, Knicks -4.5; Over/Under:  206.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

New York Knicks:  47-35 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

New York Knicks:  7-3 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with all 3 wins coming against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last 3 games. In game 5 of that series, Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 42 while Gabe Vincent was next on the team with 22 points. Bam Adebayo led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Kevin Love led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 45.5% from the field, 37.8% from 3-point range, and 64.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 35-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 46-43.

The Knicks finished the regular season with a 47-35 record overall and they were 23-18 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with all 3 wins coming against the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last 3 games. In game 5 of that series, Jalen Brunson led the team in points in that game with 23 while RJ Barrett was next on the team with 21 points. Julius Randle led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Mitchell Robinson led the team in rebounds with 18. They were 43.5% from the field, 31% from 3-point range, and 79.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.1 PPG against them. The Knicks have an ATS record of 48-35-4 this season and their O/U record is 43-42-2.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 5th seeded Knicks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. Both of these teams are entering this series after winning their previous series 4-1 and both of these teams were the lower seeded teams in each of those series. The Knicks knocked out the Cavaliers after winning their last 3 games in a row now, but the Heat knocked out the number 1 seeded Bucks after winning their last 3 games in a row too. The Heat are going to have a lot of confidence in this series after taking out the number 1 seed in the entire NBA and they even won 2 of those games in Milwaukee. The Knicks have been hot in the playoffs so far but the Heat have been just as hot and they had a much tough matchup in the 1st round. Jimmy Butler has been playing really well in every playoff game and he will be a big reason why the Heat have a chance to pull off an upset in this game. Both of these teams are also very good on the defensive end so whoever does win this game, it will likely be in a low scoring game with a smaller margin of victory. The Heat are going to have a ton of confidence here and have looked so good in their games, they will keep this a close fight all night. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Knicks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 30, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Heat 101 Knicks 97.

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Miami Heat: 8-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 1-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 28-18 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5. 7-1 OVER off 3 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog.

New York Knicks: 11-3 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or less. 8-2 ATS after allowing 95 points or less. 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 11-6 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

New York Knicks:  T. Keels (SG) day-to-day - Illness. Q. Grimes (SG) day-to-day - Shoulder. I. Roby (SF) day-to-day - Ankle. J. Sims (C) day-to-day - Shoulder. J. Randle (PF) day-to-day - Ankle. D. Washington Jr. (PG) Out indefinitely - Hip.

“We've practiced variations of that play with a bunch of different guys. I was going to do a different version of it. He just said, ‘No, let me be that guy.’ I just said, ‘OK, but what if we can’t get that pass.' He said, ‘I’ll get it. Don't worry about it.'” - Erik Spoelstra on Jimmy Butler after his team’s win against the Bucks in their game on Wednesday which closed out the series 4-1.

"I thought about that today. It’s a really cool experience, knowing that my Dad played here. He didn’t lead that team, but he was on that team that got to the Finals. It’s special and the connection with my Dad and everything, it's all full circle. It’s really special.” - Jalen Brunson after their win against the Cavaliers in their game on Wednesday which closed out that series 4-1.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jalen Brunson

SG Quentin Grimes

SF RJ Barrett

PF Julius Randle

C Mitchell Robinson

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: J. Randle (25.1)

APG: J. Brunson (6.2)

Reb/G: J. Randle (10)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

New York Knicks: Tom Thibodeau (3rd season)