Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  

Fanduel:  Spread:  

ESPN:  Spread: 

Heat 41-21 1st place Eastern Conference

Bucks: 37-25 4th place Eastern Conference

A HUGE Eastern Conference matchup.  Many people believe this matchup will be the conference Finals matchup… Those people are wrong if you have been watching the Philadelphia 76ers over the last 2 games.  Those people could also be wrong if the Chicago Bulls get fully healthy before the Playoffs begin.  However right now… The Miami Heat have the best TEAM in the East… while the Milwaukee Bucks have the best player of a generation (Giannis).  Those two statements should not be debated… yet.  A win for the Bucks could lift them to 3rd place… a win for the Heat could help to put some permanent space between them and the Bulls.  Winning is the name of the game especially with the season closing fast (just six weeks left!!!!). And don’t for a second think that the ABucks don’t need this the most.  The Bucks are simultaneously trying to catch the Heat and hold off the very strong Cleveland Cavaliers.  

The Miami Heat are the winningest team in the Eastern Conference so far.  They have a great leader in SF Jimmy Butler who may best exemplify a two-way player in this league.  The Heat are on a 4-game winning streak…. Beating Charlotte, New York (who doesn’t?), the San Antonio Spurs, and most importantly the Chicago Bulls.  The Heat are waiting for some very important guys to get back from the injury list.  PG Kyle Lowry and  SG Victor Oladipo have been in and out of the lineup… at the moment they are relying on big games from Jimmy and rebounds leader (team lead) C Bam Adebayo.  The Heat are deep with SG Duncan Robinson and SG Tyler Herro stepping in to hit shots from all over the floor.  The problem they run into against a team like the Bucks is a lack of size on the interior.  Bam Adebayo tops out at 6’9 on a good day.  When he faces Giannis in the paint he will be facing a bigger, more athletic player… and Giannis doesn’t even play Center.  When the Heat go to the bench they find a lot of quality players to fill spots… a lot of defensive minded guys that help retain the #5 defense in the NBA.

The Milwaukee Bucks have the best player.  Giannis is not leading in the MVP race… that race is between Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Ja Morant… I’d like to say DeMar DeRozan… but c’mon.  The voters like sexy dunks and crazy passes.  Giannis is not the best player of his decade because he leads his Championship winning team in points and rebounds… but because he is such an odd combination of un-defendable.  If you work to keep him out of the paint the Bucks will drain from the mid-range… If you work to stop the mid-range game Giannis will beat you in the paint. Giannis is the perfect mixture of size, skill, and emotion.  LeBron used to be that guy… Giannis is there now.  The problem with the Bucks is that SF Khris Middleton and PG Jrue Holiday NEED to take advantage of all the opportunities that Giannis creates.  If the Bucks had CP3 and Jimmy Butler instead of the two stars supporting Giannis they would have won the last several Finals instead of just the last one.  They are paying the same premium.  A Bucks whiff this offseason should prompt a move of both those guys.  The Bucks are 6-4 over their last ten games and 5-5 ATS.  They need to do better.  They can do better.

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The Heat are 41-21 on the season, but 35-26-1 ATS.  They have logged 37 Overs and 25 Unders.  They are 20-14 in road games.

The Bucks are 37-25 on the season, but 27-25 ATS.  They have not been a great betting opportunity all season.  They are 21-12 in home games.

Miami is 16th in scoring with 109.5 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.5 per game, and 14th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7.  They are a fantastic defense ranking 5th while allowing only 104.7 ppg.

Milwaukee is 5th in scoring with 113.6 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.6, and 16th in AST/To ratio with 1.7.  On defense they are just average at 16th while allowing 110.0 ppg per game from opponents. 

Our prediction for Wednesday, March 2nd is….  Bucks 111 - Heat 108

The Bucks will win outright.  The heat can’t handle this team at the moment.  The difference is the head to head matchup of C Bam Adebayo and Forward Giannis Antetokuonmpo in the paint.  Giannis will win 90% of the time and won’t be afraid to keep dipping.

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Miami is 19-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Unders.
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite.
Milwaukee is 1 Over and 5 under as a home underdog the last 3 seasons.

Heat:  SG Victor Oladipo (knee) Out ** PG Kyle Lowry (personal) Quest ** PF Markieff Morris (neck) Out

Bucks: PG George Hill (neck) Out ** SG Pat Connaughton (finger) Out ** C Brook Lopez (back Out

Heat:  PF P.J. Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Gabe Vincent, SG Duncan Robinson

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton, PG Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue holiday

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.7

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.9

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.2

Steals: Jimmy Butler 1.8

Blocks:  Bam Adebayo 0.9

Bucks

Points: Giannis 29.4

Assists: Jrue Holiday 6.6

Rebounds: Giannis 11.4

Steals: Jrue Holiday 1.4

Blocks: Brook Lopez 3.0

Heat: Erik Spoelstra

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer