Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/4/2023

by Chuck Sommers

Saturday, Feb 04, 2023
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: BSWI, BSSUN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Bucks -6
FanDuel: Bucks -6
BetMGM: Bucks -5.5
Caesars: Bucks -5.5

Season record
Heat: 29-24
Bucks: 35-17

The All-Stars have been announced, the trade deadline is days away, and the NBA season has never seen so much parity and intrigue than it has at this moment. All you need to do is look at the Western Conference and laugh with a hearty burst at how ridiculous this season has been. You know what's not ridiculous? Our champion handicappers continuing to kill it on the NBA level over the last 30 days. All you need to do is take one look at what they're doing and see that this is the place to be as we purge through the second half of the season. Doc's Sports has been tremendous over the last month with a 17-8-0 run and net profit of $8,100. Team Del Genio has also been very good at an 11-6-1 run that has made for some very exciting runs near to the top. Basketball is taking full swing with football about to be set on the back burner, and you want to be locked in at bigal.com. Take advantage of our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what our champion handicappers bring to the table. Make sure you're following winners at bigal.com and get that same kind of money in your pocket.

Heat - Bucks preview, prediction and analysis

Recent form
Heat: lost 106-104 at Knicks
Bucks: won 106-105 vs. Clippers

There's nothing like a good old fashioned Eastern Conference finals preview to get your Saturday off to the right start. Or technically speaking when you're having a nightcap at the local bar because it's already 8:00 o'clock Eastern Time and you're just waiting to see if the day is going to end.
 
Nevertheless it should be a very exciting matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat on Saturday in Milwaukee with the bucks trying to extend their winning streak to seven games while the Heat try to find some form of consistency because right now there is none.
 
If you haven't paid attention to the MVP race going on in the NBA then you're absolutely missing out on one hell of a race. I would like to think it has come down to a four man race at this point between Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic and the man highlighting this matchup, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
 
Antetokounmpo Is coming off yet another classic performance last game in the 106-105 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. This man dropped probably the easiest double double in dominant fashion that we've ever seen in NBA history going for 54 points and 19 rebounds in the narrow victory for Milwaukee. I'm not sure how much more needs to be said about this man for him to just completely go off on the eater of worlds treatment in the NBA, but it has been one of the most incredible sights that I think anybody has ever seen any player do. And there have been a lot of vintage performances this year. None quite like this guy.
 
“Tomorrow I think I'm going to go to Culver's,” said Antetokounmpo, who also had 18 rebounds. “I'll go get 50 cheeseburgers and try to eat as many as I can. The rest, I'll have my son eat them or I give them to my dog."
 
This man is a legend and needs to be protected at all costs. When he is getting going at the rate that he is, there is nobody else in the NBA that can touch his level. And that's why even with the dedication to defense that Miami has displayed over the last number of years, this is going to be a ridiculously tough test for Miami especially coming off a loss their last game.
 
Miami is coming off this 106-104 lost to the New York Knicks that just seems utterly gut punching at every possible turn. Miami has lost two of its last three with losses to Charlotte and New York. I don't think I need to go any further than to tell you how degrading that is for a team that was in the Eastern Conference finals last season, and is currently only AT29-24 on the season. It's a team that has struggled to stay consistent this entire season and just when you think that they finally crawled themselves out of a hole, they go ahead and lay two eggs in the last five days of what is not supposed to happen.
 
“We just couldn’t put them away. Any time we got a little bit of a lead, we couldn’t put them away. They came right back,” Heat veteran Udonis Haslem said. “That’s a tribute to their resilience, but also, we’ve got to understand that we’ve got to play off misses. We can’t keep taking the ball out of the basket and come down and try to match people shot for shot.”
 
Prediction
 
Milwaukee is laying 5.5 in this game and that seems like a very reasonable number for them to outright cover. Miami has just been in too many games where they shouldn't be this bad but it ultimately boils down to talent. And right now I prefer the guy that's dropping 50 points like it's nothing. Bucks 118, Heat 108

Betting trends


Heat are 9-19 ATS off an under this season.

Heat are 38-31 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Bucks are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

Projected starting lineup


Heat:
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo

Bucks:
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez

Injury report:

Heat: 
Kyle Lowry (knee, out)

Bucks: None

Statistical leaders

Heat:
Points: Jimmy Butler -- 21.7
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo -- 10.0
Assists: Kyle Lowry -- 5.3

Bucks:
Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 32.3
Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 12.3
Assists: Jrue Holiday -- 7.2

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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