Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/26/2023

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI 

Where to Watch:  NBA TV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +11, Bucks -11; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +11, Bucks -11; Over/Under:  219 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +11.5, Bucks -11.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Milwaukee Bucks:  58-24 (1st place, Central Division)

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Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

Milwaukee Bucks:  4-6 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with both wins coming against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last 2 games. In game 4, Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 56 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 15 points. Gabe Vincent led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 49.4% from the field, 40.6% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 34-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 45-43.

The Bucks finished the regular season with a 58-24 record overall and they were 32-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Miami Heat in their last 2 games. In game 4, Brook Lopez led the team in points in that game with 36 while Giannis Antetokounmpo was next on the team with 26 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in assists in that game with 13 while Brook Lopez led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 43.3% from the field, 32.5% from 3-point range, and 85% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.3 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 44-36-6 this season and their O/U record is 46-40.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as an 11 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Bucks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. The Heat are entering this game with a 3-1 series lead after winning both of their home games and even with Giannis back in the lineup for the Bucks in game 4, it still wasn't enough to beat this hot Heat team. The Heat have already taken 1 game in Milwaukee and they have looked great in every game of this series. The Bucks had their chance to even up the series with a win in Miami in game 4 as Giannis was back in the lineup and they even had a lead by double digits late in the 4th quarter, but the Heat were just too much for them as they blew that lead and went on to lose the game, going down 3-1 in the series. Now all the pressure is on the number 1 seed in the East to make a comeback on their home court but even if they win this game at home and keep their season alive, the Heat have shown they can go toe-to-toe with the Bucks and they are not going to lose this game by double digits. The Heat don't need to win this game with a 3-1 series lead as they could end it back at home in game 6, but they have all the momentum on their side right now and will use it to try and close out this series on the road in 5 games. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Bucks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, April 26, 2023 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Bucks 121 Heat 116.

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Miami Heat: 7-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 5-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. 12-6 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 34-23 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

Milwaukee Bucks: 23-13 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 11-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 10-2 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. 13-3 OVER off a road loss.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

Milwaukee Bucks:  W. Matthews (SG) Ques Wed - Calf.

“For 40 minutes of this game, it was frustrating. ... It just shows you that when you have the right grit and perseverance, you can win. And then it always helps to have a guy like him.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Bucks in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series. 

“He obviously played great. He's been great all series long. He's been aggressive. He's been knocking down shots, shooting the 3 extremely well. There hasn't been a thing he hasn't been doing. It's a tough draw, but we have to keep getting better, keep making life tough for him, one game at a time.” - Brook Lopez after their loss against the Heat in their game on Monday, game 4 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Grayson Allen

SF Khris Middleton

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (31.1)

APG: J. Holiday (7.4)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Milwaukee Bucks: Mike Budenholzer (5th season)