Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/16/2023

Game Time: 5:30 pm ET, Sunday, April 16, 2023

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI 

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Bucks -9; Over/Under:  218.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Bucks -9; Over/Under:  218.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +9.5, Bucks -9.5; Over/Under:  218.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Milwaukee Bucks:  58-24 (1st place, Central Division)

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Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

Milwaukee Bucks:  6-4 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Chicago Bulls in their last game. Jimmy Butler and Max Strus each led the team in points in that game with 31 while Tyler Herro was next on the team with 12 points. Tyler Herro led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 41% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 31-50-3 this season and their O/U record is 41-43.

The Bucks finished the regular season with a 58-24 record overall and they were 32-9 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors in their last game. Lindell Wigginton led the team in points in that game with 17 while Bobby Portis was next on the team with 16 points. Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Meyers Leonard led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 46.3% from the field, 35.3% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.3 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 43-33-6 this season and their O/U record is 42-40.

The current betting odds have the Bucks listed as a 9 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Bucks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. The Bucks finished the regular season with the best record in the East and the entire NBA as they were 58-24 overall. They were great in their home games too with their 32-9 home record and they have been resting their players over the last 2 weeks getting ready for this 1st round of the playoffs. The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall but they were terrible in their road games with a 17-24 road record. They also had to play in the play-in tournament and even lost at home in the 1st game against the Hawks by double digits before beating the Bulls on Friday. The Heat have been a really streaky team all season and they also have one of the worst ATS records in the entire NBA this season. The Bucks are going to be well rested for this game with most of their starters back in the lineup and Giannis is going to be looking to make a statement after failing to get to the finals last season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bucks to cover the spread in this 1st game of the series. 

Heat Bucks Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 16, 2023 (5:30 pm ET start time) is Bucks 127 Heat 109.

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Miami Heat: 7-19 ATS off a home win. 5-25 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. 14-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 18-10 UNDER after scoring 105 points or less.

Milwaukee Bucks: 40-22 ATS as a favorite. 22-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 24-16 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs. 22-12 UNDER in all playoff games.

Miami Heat:  N. Jovic (SF) Out indefinitely - Back.

Milwaukee Bucks:  K. Middleton (SF) Prob Sun - Knee. G. Allen (SG) Prob Sun - Ankle. P. Connaughton (SG) Prob Sun - Ankle. G. Antetokounmpo (SF) Ques Sun - Knee. A. Green (PG) Ques Sun - Foot.

“Our team has obviously not been perfect this year. But I do know one thing about the men in that locker room: The last 48 hours, I know how categorically, unequivocally, how badly and desperately our group wanted to get into this damn thing — and get into the playoffs to have an opportunity to compete for a title.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Bulls in their game on Friday in the play-in tournament.

“I think we’ll probably focus on ourselves, too, to be honest with you. The appropriate amount of scouting and prep will be put in.” - Mike Budenholzer after his team’s loss against the Raptors in their final game of the regular season. 

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Tyler Herro

SF Max Strus

PF Jimmy Butler 

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Joe Ingles

SF Khris Middleton

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (31.1)

APG: J. Holiday (7.4)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Milwaukee Bucks: Mike Budenholzer (5th season)