by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 04, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
Where to watch: BSSE-MEM, BSSUN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Grizzlies -2.5
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: Grizzlies -2.5
Caesars: Grizzlies -2
Season record
Heat: 11-12
Grizzlies: 13-9
Well, if you’ve never seen a balanced NBA season to this point, you’re in for some craziness along the way. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. The last 30 days have seen our champion handicappers cashing in a great deal. Look at Brian Bitler going 80-55-0 in the last 30 days, a run of $18,800 net profit. How about ASA, Inc.? He’s on a 55-41-2 run the last 30 days. You know where to go for your best analysis. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Heat - Grizzlies preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Heat: won 120-116 (OT) at Celtics on Friday
Grizzlies: won 117-109 vs. 76ers on Friday
Heat analysis
The Miami Heat are on a bit of a run here, though their schedule says a little to be desired here. They’ve won four of their last five but four of those games have come against the same opponent. There were the two wins against the Washington Wizards at home on Nov. 23 and 25, then the two games against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Nov. 30 and Dec. 2.
The lone loss in that run was the first meeting against Boston, so something is going right. The Heat are coming off a 120-116 win in Boston on Dec. 2. Earlier in the season, the Miami injuries really played a part into their struggles. Now with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo back in the fold – and Tyler Herro after a bit – they have the pieces to show they can be a dominant team.
Four starters scored in double figures in the Heat’s win in Boston. Adebayo led with 28 points, Herro with 26 on six made 3-pointers, and Butler added 25 points and 15 rebounds. Kyle Lowry, before fouling out, had 20 points and 4 assists.
Miami is a deep team when they’re healthy, which is why it was such a shock they couldn’t close the deal in Game 7 against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. When they’re on, things can be interesting in the Eastern Conference.
The Heat, however, have given up a lot of points and a lot of made baskets over the last five games. They’re giving up 46% of made baskets and 40 3-point attempts. Part of that can be by design, but that’s too many to allow in opponents making 34 percent.
Grizzlies analysis
The Memphis Grizzlies have been bit by the injury bug as of late, especially with Ja Morant having gone down a while back. He’s since back in the lineup, but Desmond Bane – worthy of some All-Star consideration, is out with a toe injury. Now add Steven Adams being hurt, and the Grizzlies are just trying to stay around in a crowded Western Conference.
So far so good, especially with Memphis coming off an 8-point win against the Philadelphia 76ers over the weekend. Morant struggled by shooting 10 of 28 from the floor, but got a strong 22-point, nine-rebound effort from the recently-returned Jaren Jackson.
For all the talk of Morant, we have to remember how important of a player Jackson is on the interior. He can be used as a strong No. 2 when Morant struggles like he did the other night. Jackson, in addition to that all-around play, he still nonchalantly gets four blocks a night.
But imagine if Bane was in the lineup with these two cooking. That’s a Big Three no one really expected to see when the season started, but with how much Bane has turned into more than just a 3-point marksman, it makes this offense the most dynamic in the history of the franchise.
Whether that translates to a championship or not remains to be seen.
Prediction
The line is too low to take the points. I think the Grizzlies at home just have a much more distinct advantage with Morant and Jackson. That duo can counter Butler and Adebayo. Herro has to have a big game for them to have a chance, and on the road, I’m not sure the sharpshooter is at a point yet to be considered that. Grizzlies by 8
Betting trends
Heat are 19-8 ATS on the road after 2 overs the last 3 seasons.
Heat are 36-23 ATS after playing on the road the last 2 seasons.
Heat are 16-3 ATs after 3 straight road games the last 2 seasons.
Grizzlies are 42-29 ATS as a favorite the last 2 seasons.
Grizzlies are 24-13 ATS when playing a 2nd game in 5 days the last 2 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo
Grizzlies:
PG: Ja Morant
SG: John Konchar
SF: Dillon Brooks
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr.
C: Brandon Clarke
Key Injuries
Heat: Victor Oladipo (knee, out)
Grizzlies: Steven Adams (hip, out), Desmond Bane (toe, out)
Statistical leaders
Heat:
Points: Jimmy Butler – 21.2
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo – 9.1
Assists: Kyle Lowry – 6.0
Grizzlies:
Points: Ja Morant – 28.2
Rebounds: Steven Adams – 11.2
Assists: Ja Morant – 7.3
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
