Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/23/2021

by James Q

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Picks Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/23/2021

Game Time: 4:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 23rd, 2021 
Venue:  Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Where to Watch:  NBA TV, Bally Sports Sun (miami), Bally Sports Indiana

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Heat -4:  O/U: 224
BetMGM:  Spread: **:  O/U: **
VegasInsider:  Spread: Heat - 3.5:  O/U: 224

Season Record

Heat: 1-0 Eastern Conference
Pacers: 0-1 Eastern Conference

Miami opened their season by scorching the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks 137-95.  Winning by 42 pts in the opener gets the fans excited for the whole season… especially against the winners of last season. It also leads both teams to empty the bench early and work out the deep roster pieces.

Indiana lost a very close game in their season opener against the Charlotte Hornets 123-122.  They got to see up close just how good LaMelo Ball is… and he is good.  The Pacers were missing several players to injury and relied primarily on star forward Domantas Sabonis who had 33 pts and 15 rbs. 

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Heat vs Pacers Preview and Analysis. 


Offensive Analysis 

The Heat are now ranked 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They were led by Tyler Herro who was 10-18 on shots from the field.  He also had 4 3-pointers. The team has been waiting for Tyler to show up and be the right hand man to Jimmy Butler on the scoring front.  He’ll never be the defensive player Jimmy is, but he can score.  The Heat as a whole are shooting 53% from the field and 64.5 % from the free throw line… they will need to get those free throw numbers up if they want to keep winning.

The Pacers are 20th in offensive efficiency.  They scored well in the opener but didn’t get the win.  They are shooting 46.7% from the field and 87.5 % from the free throw line.  

Defensive Analysis
Miami is tied for 2nd in the NBA on defense.  They gave up a very skimpy 95 points to the Milwaukee Bucks and many of those came in fourth quarter garbage time.  Their defensive rating is 90.5 (4th) and they are 1st in DREB% 89.3.

Indiana is 24th in defensive rating 116.3.  They have a strong front court, but are missing key pieces at SG and SF.  They couldn't stop Charlotte from behind the arc.  The bright spot is Myles Turner hasn’t forgotten how to block shots… and those missing pieces Caris LaVert, Jeremy Lamb, and T.J Warren will be back and will make this an all new team.


Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction 

Our prediction for Saturday, October 23rd is… Heat 118 - Pacers 103

The Pacers have a great frontline combo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner… but they are missing way too many skilled guards and forwards right now.

NCAAF Betting Trends

Miami is 57-46 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.
Miami is 26-15 ATS against Central division opponents the last 3 seasons.
Indiana is 63-55 ATS against MIAMI since 1996.
Indiana is 39-16 at home against MIAMi since 1996.

Injury Report:
Miami: SG Victor Oladipo (Knee) Out indefinitely.
Pacers: SG Caris LaVert (Back) Out  *  SF T.J. Warren (foot) Out * SG Jeremy Lamb Quest * 

Starting Lineups

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Pacers: PG Malcolm Butler, SG Chris Duarte, SF Justin Holiday, PF Domantas Sabonis, C Myles Turner

Statistical Leaders 

Points: Tyler Herro 27
Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 13
Assists: Kyle Lowry 6
Steals: Caleb Martin
Blocks: Kyle Lowry

Points: Domantas Sabonis 33
Rebounds:  Domantas Sabonis 15
Assists: Malcolm Brogdon 11
Steals: T.J. McConnell 1
Blocks: Myles Turner 4


Heat:  Erik Spoelstra got the Heat job in 2008.  He has gone from boy wonder to the grizzled vet the franchise relies on.  He has coached historically great teams to multiple NBA finals victories, he has coached teams that were rebuilding, and now he has another group that will perennially contend for championships.  All along he has been a rock.

Pacers: Rick Carlisle. Rick left the job as the Indiana Pacers’ head coach in 2007 to take the job as Dallas Mavericks head coach.  He spent a dozen years with Dallas… winning a championship, watching that championship team break apart and retire off… rebuilding from nothing… getting lucky with Luka Doncic… then leaving to become the head coach of the Indiana Pacers.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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