by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 30, 2021
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports Sun, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
BetMGM: Heat -4.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
Heat: 22-13 (4th place, Eastern Conference)
Rockets: 10-25 (Last place, Western Conference)
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Heat - Rockets preview and analysis
Recent form
Heat: won four straight; won 119-112 vs. Wizards on Tuesday
Rockets: lost five straight; lost 132-123 vs. Lakers on Tuesday
The Miami Heat may have lucked out with a golden chance to stretch their winning streak to five games.
Miami's game Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs, which was the second night of a back-to-back after playing at home the night before, was postponed due to insufficient players ready to go. Instead, the Heat will continue their Texas road trip Friday with a New Year's Eve clash against the Houston Rockets.
Miami is coming off a 7-point win against the Washington Wizards -- which we nearly called the other day -- in which half of Miami’s roster has had to deal with COVID or injuries of the like.
The Miami Heat may have lucked out with a golden chance to stretch their winning streak to five games.
Miami's game Wednesday against the San Antonio Spurs, which was the second night of a back-to-back after playing at home the night before, was postponed due to insufficient players ready to go. Instead, the Heat will continue their Texas road trip Friday with a New Year's Eve clash against the Houston Rockets.
Miami is coming off a 7-point win against the Washington Wizards -- which we nearly called the other day -- in which half of Miami’s roster has had to deal with COVID or injuries of the like.
Tyler Herro played the role of his last name with a game-high 32 points off the bench on 9 of 19 shooting, and Duncan Robinson added 26 points on eight 3-pointers for the Heat’s fourth straight win. Jimmy Butler had 25 points and a double-take 15 assists to go with eight rebounds.
“Just continuing to get better,” Herro said.
Butler rolled his right ankle with 1:03 remaining in the game, which could further shorten their rotation if he’s not available for Wednesday. The Heat are already down Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Dewayne Dedmon, just to name a few.
The Heat just got Butler back after missing time with a tailbone injury, on top of entering health and safety protocol. Miami led by as many as 28 points against the Wizards before faltering at the end.
The Rockets come in on a five-game losing streak and have lost nine of 11 since winning seven straight from Nov. 24 - Dec. 8. Houston has had to deal with its share of COVID problems and injuries, but for the most part is getting healthy heading into this matchup. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, the Rockets' dynamic backcourt, is back to dropping buckets and throwing down dunks.
But the Rockets' defense has yet to come together, and that showed in the 9-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. Houston only suited up eight players but got a balanced scoring attack led by Green's team-high 24 points on 8 of 16 shooting. Christian Wood and Porter had 22 points each for one of Houston's better offensive performances. They still gave up 132.
"We expected to win," Houston coach Stephen Silas said. "We had no problems standing up to those guys, not backing down. They had some great players out there that played very well. Russ with the triple-double, LeBron with the triple-double and Melo doing his thing. It was tough."
Despite this run of winning, the Heat are 1-4 against the spread in the last five with the over going 4-2 in the last six. The Rockets haven't been any better going 1-7 ATS with that same mark straight up. The over has also gone 6-1 in the last seven, meaning defense has been optional.
The Rockets come in on a five-game losing streak and have lost nine of 11 since winning seven straight from Nov. 24 - Dec. 8. Houston has had to deal with its share of COVID problems and injuries, but for the most part is getting healthy heading into this matchup. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, the Rockets' dynamic backcourt, is back to dropping buckets and throwing down dunks.
But the Rockets' defense has yet to come together, and that showed in the 9-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. Houston only suited up eight players but got a balanced scoring attack led by Green's team-high 24 points on 8 of 16 shooting. Christian Wood and Porter had 22 points each for one of Houston's better offensive performances. They still gave up 132.
"We expected to win," Houston coach Stephen Silas said. "We had no problems standing up to those guys, not backing down. They had some great players out there that played very well. Russ with the triple-double, LeBron with the triple-double and Melo doing his thing. It was tough."
Despite this run of winning, the Heat are 1-4 against the spread in the last five with the over going 4-2 in the last six. The Rockets haven't been any better going 1-7 ATS with that same mark straight up. The over has also gone 6-1 in the last seven, meaning defense has been optional.
Prediction
The Heat are down a number of key offensive weapons with the likes of Robinson and Lowry, but their team defense has been what's gotten them on this run. Houston's youth and athleticism can be a problem against a hobbled Butler, but I can see Miami holding off near the end. Heat by 8
The Heat are down a number of key offensive weapons with the likes of Robinson and Lowry, but their team defense has been what's gotten them on this run. Houston's youth and athleticism can be a problem against a hobbled Butler, but I can see Miami holding off near the end. Heat by 8
Betting trends
The Heat are 7-5 ATS in non-conference games this season.
The Heat are 9-12 ATS off a win this season.
The Heat are 7-5 ATS in non-conference games this season.
The Heat are 9-12 ATS off a win this season.
Projected starting lineup
Heat:
PG: Kyle Guy
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Omer Yurtseven
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Omer Yurtseven
Rockets:
PG: Kevin Porter Jr.
SG: Jalen Green
SF: Eric Gordon
PF: Daniel Theis
C: Christian Wood
SF: Eric Gordon
PF: Daniel Theis
C: Christian Wood
Key injuries
Heat: COVID -- Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, P.J. Tucker, Udonis Haslem; Bam Adebayo (thumb, out), Dewayne Dedmon (leg, out), Markieff Morris (neck, out)
Rockets: COVID -- Garrison Matthews, Kenyon Martin Jr., JaeSean Tate, D.J. Augustin; John Wall (conditioning, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
