Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/05/2024

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Friday, April 5, 2024

Venue:  Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  Space City Home Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat -1, Rockets +1; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat -1, Rockets +1; Over/Under:  214.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat -1, Rockets +1; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Miami Heat:  42-33 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

Houston Rockets:  38-37 (3rd place, Southwest Division)

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Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

Houston Rockets:  8-2 last 10

The Heat are entering this game with a 42-33 record overall and they are 22-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Washington Wizards, and the New York Knicks in their last game, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Philadelphia 76ers still to be played on Thursday night. In their game against the Knicks, Terry Rozier led the team in points in that game with 34 while Jimmy Butler was next on the team with 17 points. Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jović each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 48.6% from the field, 44.7% from 3-point range, and 95.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 108.4 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 36-37-2 this season and their O/U record is 29-46.

The Rockets are entering this game with a 38-37 record overall and they are 26-12 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Golden State Warriors still to be played on Thursday night. In their game against the Timberwolves, Jalen Green led the team in points in that game with 26 while Fred VanVleet was next on the team with 22 points. Jalen Green led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Amen Thompson led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 44.6% from the field, 29.2% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.6 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 42-31-2 this season and their O/U record is 36-37-2.

The current betting odds have the Rockets listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rockets haven't looked great in their games this season with their 38-37 record overall which is barely over .500 and has them outside of the last play-in spot for the playoffs in the West right now. They are 3 games behind the Warriors who are in that last play-in spot and with few games left in the regular season, the Rockets can't really afford to lose anymore games. They have looked a lot better on their home court all year with their 26-12 home record. Meanwhile, the Heat have also looked good in their games this season with their 42-33 record overall which has them in a playoff spot in the East right now. The Heat are in the last playoff spot in the East right now and looking to avoid dropping into the play-in games. They have also been a good road team this year with their 22-16 road record. Both of these teams are coming into this one really hot since the Heat are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Rockets are 8-2. The Heat have more momentum on their side right now since they have won 3 games in a row while the Rockets have cooled off a bit with 2 losses in a row now, but both of these teams are also playing this game on back-to-backs so neither team is in a good situation here. The Heat have a worse situation too since they are playing the 1st game at home against a stronger 76ers team getting Joel Embiid back in the lineup, and then they have to hop on a plane after and fly to Houston for this game. Houston is also on a back-to-back playing a game they need to win against the Warriors, but they don't have to travel since they are at home for both games and they have performed well in these back-to-backs this season. The Rockets are in the better situation here and they have a little more urgency being outside of the playoffs looking in. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rockets to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Rockets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, April 5, 2024 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Rockets 112 Heat 108.

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Miami Heat: 12-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games. 24-13 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less. 14-7 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games. 12-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5.

Houston Rockets: 14-24 ATS when playing on back-to-back days. 11-27 ATS after allowing 130 points or more. 6-3 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses. 26-19 UNDER off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. 

Miami Heat:  T. Herro (SG) Mid April - Knee. J. Richardson (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

Houston Rockets:  A. Sengun (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. T. Eason (SF) out for season - Leg. S. Adams (C) out for season - Knee.

“More than anything, this was an introduction to our new players, especially Terry, to Heat-Knicks. This is what these games are ... two teams that are very committed to doing tough things, especially on the defensive end.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Knicks in their game on Tuesday.

“It's tough to do that in the NBA, win that many games in a row. Players understand they have to increase their role, be more efficient. We've had to make some quick adjustments.” - Ime Udoka after his team’s loss against the Timberwolves in their game on Tuesday.

PG Terry Rozier

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Nikola Jovic

C Bam Adebayo

PG Fred VanVleet

SG Jalen Green

SF Amen Thompson

PF Dillon Brooks

C Jabari Smith Jr.

PPG: J. Butler (21)

APG: T. Rozier (5.7)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (10.6)

PPG: A. Sengun (21.1)

APG: F. VanVleet (8)

Reb/G: A. Sengun (9.3)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (16th season)

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (1st season)