Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview and Odds - 11/05/2026

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Thursday, November 5, 2026

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to Watch:  NBA TV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +6, Warriors -6; Over/Under:  237.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +6, Warriors -6; Over/Under:  237.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +6, Warriors -6; Over/Under:  237.5 points

Miami Heat:  2-5 (4th place, Southeast Division)

Golden State Warriors:  5-3 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

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Miami Heat:  2-5 last 7

Golden State Warriors:  5-3 last 8

The Heat are entering this game with a 2-5 record overall this season and they are 1-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Los Angeles Lakers, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Los Angeles Clippers still to be played on Wednesday night. In their game against the Lakers, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in points in that game with 30 while Klay Thompson was next on the team with 19 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Davion Mitchell each led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 50.7% from the field, 39% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 118.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 123.9 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 2-5 this season and their O/U record is 4-3.

The Warriors are entering this game with a 5-3 record overall this season and they are 3-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak with wins coming against the Denver Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Phoenix Suns. Stephen Curry led the team in points in that game with 34 while Brandin Podziemski was next on the team with 20 points. Stephen Curry led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Charles Bassey led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 42.9% from the field, 31% from 3-point range, and 83.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 6-2 this season and their O/U record is 5-3.

The current betting odds have the Warriors listed as a 6 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Warriors have looked good in their games this season with their 5-3 record overall which has them right in the middle of the West. They have looked good on their home court too with their 3-1 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Heat have looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-5 record overall which has them in the bottom half of the East. They haven't been a good road team either with their 1-2 road record this year. The Heat made the big splash when they traded for Giannis, but that trade hasn't really been working out for them. They gave up a lot to get him and now the team doesn't have much talent left. Giannis is once again finding himself carrying a bad team that doesn't play defense and now he is banged up dealing with some injuries. The Heat haven't looked that good in many of their games, coming off a loss in their last one, and they are in a terrible situation here since they are also on a back-to-back. The Warriors aren't playing on Wednesday though, so they are going to have rest on their side and lately they have been rolling. They had a terrible start to the season going 0-3, but now they have a ton of momentum on their side with 5 wins in a row. They are in the better situation here with rest on their side and they have looked a lot better on this run than the Heat have looked in any game this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Warriors to cover the spread in this game. 

Heat Warriors Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, November 5, 2026 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Warriors 127 Heat 115.

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Miami Heat: 34-22 1H ATS as a road underdog. 37-25 1H ATS in non-conference games. 52-31 1H ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 14-7 OVER against Pacific division opponents. 32-23 OVER as a road underdog.

Golden State Warriors: 18-33 ATS off a home win. 3-6 ATS off a home win against a division rival. 8-23 ATS after a win by 6 points or less. 12-4 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 32-19 OVER off a home win.

Miami Heat:  G. Antetokounmpo (PF) Day To Day - Wrist. M. Gardner (SF) Day To Day - Quadriceps.

Golden State Warriors:  B. Williams (PG) Day To Day - Quadriceps. G. Santos (PF) Out - Knee. K. Porzingis (C) Out - Illness. M. Moody (SG) Out - Knee. J. Butler III (SF) Out - Knee.

“Nobody’s happy about it. That’s obvious; you’ll have to ask them specifically. I need to do a better job of getting this group to defend to our potential. We’re all accountable to this. Everybody in that locker room, the players and the staff alike, we have to figure it out, and we’re fully capable of doing it.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the LA Lakers in their game on Monday. 

“Bassey was great. What a big night for him. The rebounding, the scoring, he and Yaxel have a really good connection in the pick-and-roll game. He gives him a lob threat, and Yaxel sees the floor so well, and he’s so big that he finds him when he’s behind the defense.” - Steve Kerr after his team’s win against the Suns in their game on Monday. 

PG Davion Mitchell

SG Klay Thompson

SF Andrew Wiggins

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Bam Adebayo

PG Stephen Curry

SG Brandin Podziemski

SF Yaxel Lendeborg

PF Gui Santos

C Draymond Green

PPG: Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.4)

APG: Davion Mitchell (8)

Reb/G: Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.4)

PPG: Stephen Curry (30)

APG: Draymond Green (6.3)

Reb/G: Yaxel Lendeborg (7)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (19th season)

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (13th season)