Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/12/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Monday, June 12, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Nuggets -9; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Nuggets -9; Over/Under:  208 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  208.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Amedeus Mastrangelo is on a HOT STREAK in the NBA on a HUGE 23-15-1 NBA RUN! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Miami Heat:  4-6 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  9-1 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Denver Nuggets in their last 2 games. In game 4 of this series, Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 25 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 20 points. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry each led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 44.9% from the field, 32% from 3-point range, and 85% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 45-58-3 this season and their O/U record is 53-53.

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 34-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with both wins coming against the Miami Heat in their last 2 games. In game 4 of this series, Aaron Gordon led the team in points in that game with 27 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 23 points. Jamal Murray led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 49.4% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 56-44-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-53-1.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 9 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Western Conference Champion Nuggets and the 8th seeded Eastern Conference Champion Heat for the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 3-1 series lead after sweeping both road games in Miami and now they travel back to Denver with the Heat on the brink of elimination and the Nuggets just 1 win away from the NBA Championship. The Nuggets split their 2 home games with the Heat earlier in this series but they looked a lot better in the last 2 games and now that they are only 1 win away from winning it all, it is going to be really difficult for the Heat to stop the Nuggets in Denver here. The Nuggets have also blown out the Heat by double digits in all 3 wins and they are going to be really motivated knowing it is all over if they win this game. The Heat have shown they have no response for the Nuggets in this series and they are pretty much done here going back on the road into the altitude on the brink of elimination. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, June 12, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 110 Heat 96.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert basketball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Miami Heat Denver Nuggets prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NBA predictions and previews.

Miami Heat: 11-3 ATS revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more. 19-10 ATS after 3 consecutive non-conference games. 9-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive non-conference games. 16-7 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less. 

Denver Nuggets: 13-22 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more. 6-19 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. 23-14 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more. 9-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive non-conference games. 

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Mid June - Hand.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Mid June - Leg.

“We have an incredibly competitive group. We've done everything the hard way and that's the way it's going to have to be done right now — again. And all we're going to focus on is getting this thing back to the 305. Get this thing back to Miami. And things can shift very quickly." - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in their game on Friday, game 4 of this series.

“We haven’t done a damn thing yet. We have to win another game to be world champions.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Friday, game 4 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)