Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/04/2023

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Sunday, June 4, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Heat +9, Nuggets -9; Over/Under:  214 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5; Over/Under:  214.5 points

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  8-2 last 10

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 17-24 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. Bam Adebayo led the team in points in that game with 26 while Gabe Vincent was next on the team with 19 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 40.6% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 100% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 44-56-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-51.

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 34-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 7 game winning streak with wins coming against the Phoenix Suns twice in a row, the Los Angeles Lakers in 4 straight games, and the Miami Heat in their last game. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 27 while Jamal Murray was next on the team with 26 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 14 while Michael Porter Jr. led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 50.6% from the field, 29.6% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 54-43-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-51-1.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 9 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Western Conference Champion Nuggets and the 8th seeded Eastern Conference Champion Heat for the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 1-0 series lead after taking the 1st game of this series on their home court and they also covered the spread in that game with an 11 point win. The Nuggets looked great in game 1 with all that time to rest and they were in control of that game right from the start as they took the lead and never looked back. The Heat have been playing so well in the playoffs but they were terrible in that game, losing the 1st game of a series in these playoffs for the 1st time, and they clearly struggled to keep up with the Nuggets in that Denver altitude. The Nuggets are going to have a similar home advantage in this game but they also have the size and the bench depth over the Heat too. The Heat will offer some push back in this game as they try to even up the series but they will not be able to keep up for a full quarters and even if they manage to keep it close here, they will eventually unravel late in the game as they get tired. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game.

Heat Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, June 4, 2023 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 107 Heat 92.

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Miami Heat: 6-11 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. 6-13 ATS when playing with 2 days rest. 12-4 OVER when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent. 16-9 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

Denver Nuggets: 30-19 ATS in home games. 14-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5. 33-19 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 19-12 OVER against Southeast division opponents.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Mid June - Hand.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Early June - Leg.

“I didn’t even look at the box score yet, but like I said, I think the disposition, the efforts were more appropriate in the second half. But that’s not enough. It has to be for a full game, and you also have to make some plays when you’re beat.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in their game on Thursday, game 1 of this series.

“That was one of my last messages to the group before our game. I reminded our group, if they didn’t know, that Miami went into Milwaukee and won Game 1. They went into the Garden in New York City and won Game 1. They won Game 1 up in Boston. So, we did not want them coming in here taking control of the series on our court." - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Thursday, game 1 of this series.

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Caleb Martin

C Bam Adebayo

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

Coaches:

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)